000 AXNT20 KNHC 071757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE-E winds continue over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours tonight and last at least through Mon night as a tight pressure gradient between lower pressure over South America and high pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13Wto 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 170 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. Similar convection is within 170 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC: a cold front extending from a low north of 32N enters the Gulf off the coast of Cape Coral, FL near 27N82W to 24N89W. The boundary then transitions to a stationary and extends SW to 22N93W. Scattered thunderstorms line the frontal boundary to the east of 86W. An ASCAT pass from 1524 UTC reveals fresh N winds behind the boundary. The cold front will move SE and stall this evening from near Fort Myers, Florida, to Pozo Rico, Mexico. The front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-13 ft in the south-central portions of the basin. High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean through the middle of this week. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Mon night off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is moving off the coast of NE Florida. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are ahead of the front, west of 70W. Elsewhere, high pressure ridging is allowing for fresh trade winds to prevail across the entire basin. Winds become moderate to fresh north of 35N. Seas range 4-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic. The cold front will stall from around 30N65W to around Fort Lauderdale, Florida by Mon. The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of the region Tue. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall between NE Florida and Bermuda by Wed, and will lift north of the area through Thu. $$ MORA