000 AXNT20 KNHC 070959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse nightly at least through Mon night as a tight pressure gradient between lower pressure over South America and high pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 03N-11N and east of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 00N-04N between 21W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low pressure center is offshore Florida near 29N83W. A cold front extends SW from this low to 22N97W. Scattered thunderstorms line the frontal boundary to the east of 86W. A weak surface trough has formed off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing, highest off the Texas coast. To the east of the front, gentle to moderate are occurring in the SW Gulf, with moderate southerly winds over the eastern Gulf. Near the coast of Florida, fog is occurring to the SE of the cold front. Seas range 5-6 ft in the north-central Gulf and 2-3 ft in the southern Gulf. In the forecast, the low will track NE, inland and away from the area today, while the cold front will move SE and stall this evening from near Fort Myers, Florida, to S of Tampico, Mexico. The front will then lift northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-11 ft in the south-central portions of the basin. High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean through the middle of this week. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Mon night off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A previously stalled front over the far NW waters has lifted N as a warm front out of the region. S of the front, moderate to fresh S winds have developed N of 27N and W of 75W. To the E, a weakening surface trough is noted from 32N54W to 23N60W. High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high near 32N37W. Seas range 4-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trade winds dominating S of 25N. A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida today. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds will impact areas N of 28N. By late Mon, the front will stall from around 30N65W to around Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The front will then lift north as a warm front and out of the region Tue. $$ KONARIK