000 AXNT20 KNHC 062254 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse every night through at least mid-week as a tight pressure gradient between lower pressure over South America and high pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product in the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 09N13W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 00N-10N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 00N-05N between 40W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low has entered the northwest Gulf, currently centered near 28N95W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 25N97W, while a stationary front is analyzed from the low to 29N83W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western Gulf, while moderate to fresh winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the north-central Gulf. The front will move northward as a warm front this evening, ahead of a cold front that currently extends across the northwest Gulf. By late Sun, the cold front will stall from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Bay of Campeche, then lift northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-13 ft in the south-central portions of the basin. High pressure building north of the Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into the middle of next mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N75W to 29N81W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the front from 28N-31N between 75W-81W. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds behind the front with light to gentle southerly winds south of the front. In the central Atlantic, the remnants of a stationary front extends N-S as a surface trough from 30N57W to 19N60W. High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N36W. Seas range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic. The frontal boundary over the west Atlantic will lift north of the area this evening, ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sun. Expect strong SW winds ahead of this new front over the waters north of 28N early Sun. The front will move southeast then stall from near Bermuda to around Fort Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then gradually lift north of the region through mid week. $$ ERA