000 AXNT20 KNHC 061731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force winds from overnight are currently strong to near-gale force north of Colombia. Seas range 11 to 13 ft. Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse again tonight and Sun night as a tight pressure gradient between lower pressure over South America and high pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds. Seas will continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone/Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 01N-06N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N-04N between 42W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low is noted off the Middle Texas coast near 28N97W. A stationary front extends south of the low to 27N97W. A warm front extends east of the low across the northern Gulf to 29N87W. The boundary stalls from 29N87W to the north-central Florida coast near 28N83W. Showers are mostly across the northeast Gulf N of 28N between 82W-90W. Isolated showers are noted in the western Gulf off the Texas coast. Fog is also being reported across the north-central and northwestern portions of the basin south of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are mostly in the eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the western basin. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the north-central Gulf. The front will retreat northward as a warm front this afternoon, ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf tonight. By late Sun, the cold front will stall from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Bay of Campeche, then lift northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features Section above for details on pulsing gale conditions N of Colombia. High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 9-13 ft in the south-central portions of the basin. High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean into the middle of next mid week. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly into early next week off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is pressing southward across the western Atlantic from 31N76W to the central Florida coast near 29N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and south of the front from 28N-31N between 75W-81W. An area of isolated thunderstorms are clustered off the South Florida coast. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds behind the front with light to gentle southerly winds south of the front. In the central Atlantic, the remnants of a stationary front extends N-S as a trough from 30N55W to 20N59W. Showers are in the vicinity of this trough. High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1032 mb high near 33N34W. Seas range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic. A weak cold front from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will move little today before stalling and lifting north of the area this evening, ahead of a slightly stronger cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida Sun. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the second front in the waters north of 28N early Sun. This second front will move southeast then stall from near Bermuda to around Fort Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then gradually lift north of the region through mid week. $$ AReinhart