553 AXNT20 KNHC 051724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building across the basin combined with lower pressure over South America will produce gale force winds tonight with seas 10 to 12 ft. Gale-force winds will occur once again Sat and Sun night with seas 8 to 11 ft. Please refer to the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W to 22W and from 01N to 04N between 35W to 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico, stretching from the western Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to South Texas near 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough stretches across the northeast Gulf from 30N84W to 28N88W. Showers are noted along and north of the front and trough, N of 27N between 83W and 97W. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the front, with gentle to moderate southerly winds ahead of the front. Showers are also noted off the southwest Florida coast. A 1008 mb low is located in the Bay of Campeche near 22N97W with a surface trough stretching from 24N98W to 19N96W. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft across the basin. The cold front will move east then stall across the northern Gulf by late today. The front will lift north tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move across the western Gulf Sat, before stalling from southwest Florida to the north central Yucatan Peninsula by Sun night. Looking ahead, the front will lift north and dissipate early next week. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, relatively dry conditions dominate the basin. Fresh to near gale-force winds are noted in the central Caribbean with the strongest winds north of Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are noted across the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft in the NW Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 6-10 ft in the south-central portion of the basin. High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through Tue night. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Sat night off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic from 31N54W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. A trough is noted from 25N54W to 19N54W. A 1024 mb high is west of the front near 30N67W. High pressure extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1032 mb high near 35N36W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted in the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Atlantic with strong to near gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands. Seas range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic. The stationary will dissipate by tonight. Southerly winds will increase east of northern Florida Fri as a cold front approaches the area. This front will stall off the northern Florida coast Sat, then move SE again Sun as low pressure forms north of the area. Strong S winds are expected in advance of this front Sun, mainly N of 28N. $$ AReinhart