000 AXNT20 KNHC 042320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 02N31W to the northern coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ to 15N and east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic extends across the basin supporting fair weather. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail across the western half of the basin, while gentle to moderate southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern half. Seas are less than 4 ft in the E and central Gulf, increasing to 3-5 ft along the NW Gulf coast. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will continue over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front that will move into the northern Gulf by early Fri morning. The front will stall from central Florida to Brownsville Texas Fri night, then drift northward on Sat. A reinforcing cold air will push the front again across the Gulf waters by late Sat, reaching the SE Gulf waters on Sun, where it will stall by Sun night into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends across the central Caribbean from 18N74W to 14N78W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin, with strongest winds noted over the waters around the Greater Antilles. Seas are 6-9 ft in the E and central Caribbean, while 3-4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean. Cool air behind the stationary front continues to spread across the western half of the basin, with maximum temperatures remaining in the 70F's across Cuba, Cayman Islands, and in the low 80F's over Jamaica. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure building north of the Caribbean will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Fresh SW winds are along the front mainly north of 28N, according to the latest scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate convection is also present along and east of the front mainly N of 25N. A reinforcing cold front enters the area extending from 31N61W to 26N69W. High pressure is building across the western portion of the basin behind the fronts, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N76W. Gentle to moderate W winds prevail west of both fronts to the Florida coast. To the east, surface ridging also prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 38N38W. Winds and seas associated with a cold front will continue to diminish tonight as the front moves eastward and weakens. Southerly winds will increase east of northern Florida on Fri as a new cold front approaches the area. The front will stall from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Sat, then lift northward Sat night as a low pressure system develops northeast of Jacksonville Florida. As a result, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected over the north waters on Sun. $$ ERA