000 AXNT20 KNHC 031702 TWDAT AXNT20 KNHC 031040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Gale force winds are north of 27N west of the front to 77W, and are expected to persist through this evening. Seas are 12-18 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 07N east of 14W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted between 33W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the basin, with gentle flow along the southern portion of the ridge. Seas are less than 3 ft in the W Gulf, and 3-5 ft in the E Gulf. The ridge across the southern U.S. that extends into the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward through Thu, ahead of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf early Fri morning. The front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon, then weaken and drift northward through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from northern Hispaniola near 20N71W to Panama near 09N82W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are likely along and just west of the frontal boundary, with gentle to moderate N winds observed in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail E of the front, with fresh NE winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in most of the Caribbean, except for an area of 6-10 ft seas in the SW Caribbean where winds are highest. Of note over Cuban territory and adjacent waters, the cold air behind the stationary front led 22 local stations to report low temperatures below 10 deg C/50 deg F. The lowest temperature of 5 deg C/41 deg F was recorded over Playa Giron, Matanzas. The stationary front will weaken this afternoon. High pressure building north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Thu night through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Outside of the Gale Warning, strong westerly winds north of 25N west of the front were observed on the latest scatterometer pass. Fresh to moderate to gentle W to NW winds extend south of 25N west of the front to the Greater Antilles. East of the front, strong SW winds are noted north of 27N to 55W. Over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, high pressure north of the area continues to impose mostly fair weather across the basin. Moderate N to NE winds are noted east of 30W, with moderate to fresh return flow west of 30W. Some scattered showers are present from 07N to 15N east of 23W. The cold front will reach from 24N65W to the Dominican Republic later today, then stall and weaken further on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will maintain near-gale to gale-force conditions today, with winds diminishing tonight and Thu. Long period northerly swell in the wake of the front will propagate across the forecast waters to the Caribbean passages through Thu. $$ Mahoney/MMT