000 AXNT20 KNHC 022202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N64W to eastern Cuba. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of this front north of 27N through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W to NW winds will continue behind the front through early this evening. Seas associated with the front are peaking near 20 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 04.5N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N21W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 20W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong N to NW winds continue across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These winds will gradually diminish through this evening as the ridge weakens. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere east of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 90W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the SE Gulf, 1-3 ft over the NW Gulf, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next couple of days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures E of Florida supports fresh to strong northerly winds over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These winds will gradually diminish through tonight as the ridge weakens. Southerly return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf on Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon and stall afterwards before dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, are noted elsewhere east of the front. Winds over the SW Caribbean along the Nicaragua offshore waters will reach near gale force by this evening. Winds will start to diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean will expand to the north-central part of the basin and the Windward Passage Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period N swell over the NE Caribbean passages will continue to subside tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Elsewhere west of 65W, the strong to gale force winds continue across much of the waters west of the front, with gentle to moderate winds east of the front. Seas are in the 10 to 18 ft over the open waters east of the Bahamas and north of 23N, with seas in the 6-10 ft range south of 23N and east of the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front extending from just E of Bermuda to the easternmost tip of Cuba will reach from 26N65W to Haiti tonight, and from 24N65W to Dominican Republic on Wed, then stall over the SE waters on Thu before dissipating on Thu night. Strong to gale force winds are noted on either side of the front. A reinforcing cold front will maintain these gale conditions through Wed, with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less from W to E Wed night into Thu. Long period northerly swell in the wake of the front will propagate across the forecast waters and the Caribbean passages through Thu. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 26N38W, then continues stationary to 25N48W. Near gale to gale force winds prevail north of 23N between 60W and 65W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N between 53W and 60W. Fresh to strong trades are noted south of 20N between 43W and 54W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere south of 23N, with gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Seas are in the 10-20 ft range north of 26N between 60W and 65W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere north of 20N. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range south of 20N. $$ AL