000 AXNT20 KNHC 021057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N68W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. The front will continue to move east, and reach from 31N62W to Haiti tonight, then it will stall from 30N59W to the Dominican Republic Wed evening before dissipating on Thu night. Gale-force S to SW winds will continue ahead of this front north of 27N today through Wed morning. Near gale to gale W to NW winds will continue behind the front through this afternoon. Seas associated with the front are 12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft later today and Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 0N to 08N between 09W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure prevails across the basin in the wake of a cold front currently E of the area. Fresh to strong N to NW winds continue across the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. These winds will gradually diminish through this evening as the ridge weakens. Deep-layer dry air covers the basin, thus supporting fair weather. The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Thu night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico Fri afternoon and stall afterwards before dissipating Sat. Fresh to locally strong S winds are forecast for the western half of the gulf Wed night, ahead of this front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow the front and affect the NW waters Thu night and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong N winds are over the NW Caribbean behind a cold front that extends from eastern Cuba SW to the eastern Gulf of Honduras. These winds will shift to the far SW Caribbean this evening, reaching near gale force speeds along Nicaragua offshore waters. Winds will start to diminish in the SW basin Wed morning as the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating Wed night. Mainly fair weather is across the basin being supported by deep layer dry air. Shallow moisture associated with the front and middle level diffluence support scattered showers and tstms in portions of Haiti and the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the southern Caribbean will expand to the north-central basin and the Windward Passage Thu and prevail through Sat night. Otherwise, long-period N swell over the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic will start to subside today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A strong cold front extending from 31N68W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W will reach from 31N62W to Haiti tonight, and stall from 30N59W to the Dominican Republic Wed evening before dissipating on Thu night. Gust to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front N of 24N while gale force SW winds are ahead of the front. Gale conditions will shift eastward with the front through early Wed. Afterwards, fresh to near gale force winds N of 27N will gradually diminish through Wed night. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of the front to 62W and N of 22N. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters through mid-week, then it will begin to subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of the area Thu through Fri night. Farther east, a 1022 mb high near the Canary Islands continue to support moderate to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 0N to 23N. $$ Ramos