268 AXNT20 KNHC 311759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night. Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W.The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N30W to 01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms are within 200 nm either side of the monsoon trough. Similar convective activity is observed along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC: A cold front entered the western Gulf this morning and extends from Lake Charles, Louisiana to S of Corpus Christi, TX near 26N97W. Moderate to fresh return flow remains ahead of the front in the eastern half of the basin, with winds shifting to northwesterly behind the front . Dry air at middle and lower levels maintain fair weather conditions at this time. Seas range from 3-6 ft. The front will move eastward quickly and reach from Apalachicola, Florida to near 25N90W and to the SW Gulf this evening and from Fort Myers, Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula early on Mon. The front will move east of the area by early Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop ahead and behind the front this morning and prevail through Mon night. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas, ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 ft in some areas. A plume of shallow moisture, remnants of a stationary front, is supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather conditions across the remainder of the basin. The latest scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong trades dominating the entire basin with the exception of the northwest Caribbean where flow becomes moderate to fresh. Seas in the central Caribbean range 6-12 ft due to the gale force winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia overnight, mentioned above. Seas range 5-7 ft elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passagesand into the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week, with the largest swell expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect the NW Caribbean Mon afternoon through early Tue and the SW Caribbean from early Tue through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details. A cold front sweeping eastward associated with a low north of the area merged with a stationary front in the central Atlantic. The cold front extends southwestward from 32N44W, transitions to stationary near 27N49W, then dissipates north of the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong W winds are behind the cold front, north of 28N. Seas in this area reach 22 ft. Surface riding allowing for dry conditions continues on either side of the boundary. Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, and reach from near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front tonight through Tue night. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week, combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and Thu night. $$ Mora