000 AXNT20 KNHC 311104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night. Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 00N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin ahead of the next cold front expected to come off the coast of Texas this morning. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Dry air at middle and lower levels mantain fair weather conditions at this time. The cold front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to south of Tampico early on Mon and move E of the basin early in the afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop ahead and behind the front this morning and prevail through Mon night. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas, ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in some areas. A plume of shallow moisture, remnant of a stationary front, is supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Dry, stable air dominates the remainder basin, supporting fair weather. Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through early Mon, with gale conditions developing near the coast of Colombia again tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week, with the largest swell expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect the NW basin through Tue and the far SW basin Tue and Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details. Surface ridging continue to dominate the SW N Atlantic as well as the NE Atlantic forecast waters. Between the ridges, a stationary front extending from 31N43W to 20N60W gradually weakens. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N W of the front to 65W and ahead of the front to 42W with seas to 22 ft. Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, reach from near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front tonight through Tue night. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week, combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and Thu night. $$ Ramos