000 AXNT20 KNHC 310515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of 28N late tonight through Tue night. Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N19W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm N and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is in between a 1030 mb high pressure over the North Carolina Outer Banks and lower pressure over the central U.S., Texas and Mexico. As a result, moderate to fresh southerly winds cover most of the basin. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Other than isolated showers over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, no significant precipitation areas are present at this time. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf will diminish early this morning as a strong cold front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move off the Texas coast by sunrise this morning, and push across the basin through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail in the wake of the front tonight through early Tue. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas, ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in some areas. Deep-layer dry air prevails, although isolated trade winds showers are possible across the basin from 14N-20N. The latest ASCAT wind data pass from around 31/0200 UTC shows strong winds in the central Caribbean, with near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are seen in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the far eastern and far NW Caribbean. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are between Haiti and the coast of Colombia, with 5 to 7 ft seas across most of the remainder of the basin. Higher seas are occurring in the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through tonight, with gale conditions developing near the coast of Colombia again tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will propagate through the northeastern Caribbean passages during the rest of this weekend and into early next week, with the largest swell expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front affecting the NW basin through Tue and the far SW basin Tue and Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A gale is forecast to begin late tonight to the east of northern Florida. See the Special Features section for details. Currently, a 1030 mb high pressure centered over the North Carolina Outer Banks extends a surface ridge to 30N74W to 25N68W to 23N60W. Gentle to moderate winds are near the ridge axis. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds developing off the coast of northern and central Florida. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are in the waters near the Greater Antilles and through the Caribbean passages. A 989 mb storm force low centered north of the area near 39N54W extends an associated cold front from 32N49W to 28N54W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong W winds behind this front to 66W, and north of 28N. Near gale force winds are seen north of 30.5N between 53W-63W. A broad area of very large swell is bringing seas in excess of 12 ft for areas N of 18N and between 32W-70W, with heights peaking over 20 ft north of 29N between 51W-61W. A stationary front is analyzed from 32N42W to the Virgin Islands near 18N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm NW of the stationary front, north of 27N and east of 50W. A 1030 mb high centered near 33N22W extends a surface ridge axis SW to near 21N55W, with gentle winds near the ridge axis. Fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic to the south of the ridge. For the forecast, large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight, but will continue through Mon over the central Atlantic, east of 60W. A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late tonight, reach from near 32N61W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed and weaken from 32N58W to 24N62W by early Thu. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of about 28N tonight through Tue night. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week, while combining with residual swell. The swell will begin to gradually subside Thu and Thu night. $$ Hagen