000 AXNT20 KNHC 302230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds near Colombia tonight and again Sun night. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia tonight into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late Sun night, then progress to a line from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Tue. Areas of gale-force southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N Sunday night through Tue. Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 kt expected. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia, Africa near 06N10W to 05N18W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N between 05W- 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high pressure centered over North Carolina spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Seas range from 3-6 ft. High pressure will shift E through tonight. Fresh to strong S winds over the western Gulf will diminish tonight as a strong cold front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move off the Texas coast early Sun, and push across the basin through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will prevail across the region Sun night through early Tue. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas, ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast late Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights approaching 20 feet in some areas. The stationary front over the NE basin has dissipated, as has associated shower activity. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail through the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, deep- layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather conditions with moderate to fresh trades across the rest of the basin. Strong high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Large long- period northerly swell will propagate through the northeastern Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the rest of this weekend and into early next week, with the largest swell expected tonight through Sun night. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula early on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. It will gradually weaken and dissipate by early Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic Ocean. A cold front has stalled from 32N42W to Puerto Rico. N of 28N, there is some strong W winds behind the front, with areas to the south having mainly moderate N winds. Showers previously associated with the front have dissipated. A broad are of very large swell is bringing seas in excess of 12 ft for areas N of 20N and E of 75W, with heights peaking over 20 ft toward 30N from Bermuda to just E of the stationary front. Elsewhere, high pressure centered S of the Azores is dominating the eastern Atlantic, bringing moderate to fresh trades S of 20N. High pressure centered over North Carolina is bringing light to gentle E winds N of the Bahamas and offshore Florida. The stationary front over the far SE waters will weaken and gradually dissipate through early Mon. Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the Bahamas will subside a little through Mon. Another strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late Sun night, reach from near 26N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed and stall. It will gradually weaken and dissipate by early Thu. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week, while combining with residual swell. The swell will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and Thu night. $$ KONARIK