000 AXNT20 KNHC 301031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue. The combination of the strong high and the low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds near Colombia tonight. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia tonight through Sunday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late Sun night, then reach from 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tue. Areas of gale-force southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N Sunday night through early Tue. Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the forecast waters Mon through Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 01N26W to 04N31W to 02N35W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 21W and 36W. Moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 06N east of 15W near the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with high pressure over the Carolinas spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. The broad high pressure will shift eastward through tonight. Southerly winds will increase over the western Gulf of Mexico later today ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sunday. The front will quickly move across the basin Sunday through Monday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the region Sunday night through early Tuesday. Strong southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wednesday and Wednesday night, along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola, with sea heights approaching 20 feet in some areas. A dissipating cold front passes through the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic, then south of Jamaica, to 17N87W near the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are associated with the front. A weak surface trough passes through 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean to 13N65W in the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and a few showers are associated with the trough axis. The monsoon trough is inland along the northern coast of Colombia. The front in the NW Caribbean will drift southward then dissipate later today. Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday, with gale conditions expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend, with the largest swell expected tonight through Sun night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and extend from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by late Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N43W to 19N68W in the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated embedded showers are within 60 nm on either side of the front. Elsewhere, broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, on either side of the cold front. The cold front will stall and weaken from 22N55W to Puerto Rico through Sun. Large northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of the waters east of the Bahamas through Monday. Another strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late Sunday night, then reach from 31N66W to the Dominican Republic by late Tuesday. Areas of gale-force southerly winds can be expected ahead of this front north of 27N. Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the forecast waters Monday and Tuesday. $$ Mundell