000 AXNT20 KNHC 291032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system north of the area trails a cold front into the subtropics from 31N58W to 21N76W. Scatterometer data at 0000 UTC showed a large area of gale force winds associated with the low, north of 26N between 58W and 72W. This area of gale force winds will shift eastward with the front during the next 18 hours, then move north of the forecast area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected to develop near northern Colombia Saturday night. The combination of the strong high and the low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds near Colombia on Saturday night. Seas are expected to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Saturday night through Sunday morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N26W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 08W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the upper Texas Gulf coast to the coastal plains of Mexico near 21N97W. Strong winds and large seas, associated with a cold front that exited the region yesterday, will diminish gradually today. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday, in advance of a cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday. The front will move quickly across the basin from Sunday through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. A dissipating cold front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea from 21N77W in central Cuba to near 20N88W in the northern Yucatan peninsula. Isolated showers and gusty north to northeast winds are associated with the front. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated showers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the easterly low level wind flow. The dissipating cold front will move southward and weaken across the NW Caribbean through Saturday morning. Strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday, with gale conditions expected near the coast of northern Colombia Saturday night. Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Saturday night through Sunday night. A second cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends across the forecast area from 32N57W across the southern Bahamas to 21N76W in central Cuba. Scatterometer data shows strong winds cover the entire western Atlantic, west of the front. Large seas to 30 ft are observed within the area of strong winds. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and scattered showers are within 75 nm on either side of the front. A surface trough is analyzed across the central Atlantic Ocean from 32N32W to 16N61W near Guadeloupe. Widespread cloudiness and a few showers are associated with the trough axis. Gale force winds and large seas are north of 27N in the west- central Atlantic. The cold front across the forecast area will reach from 24N60W to the Windward Passage Saturday morning, then become stationary from 21N60W to the Mona Passage by Saturday night. Large northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of the forecast area east of the Bahamas through Monday. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida late Sunday night or early Monday. $$ Mundell