000 AXNT20 KNHC 281803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front moved off the SE U.S. coast early this morning while the associated area of low pressure is rapidly intensifying north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas are expected with this system as it moves eastward across the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales ongoing north of 27N and west of the front will spread east through the end of the week. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning this afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through Sat. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north of the area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end of the week through the weekend. The combination of the building high and the low pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of Colombia Fri night and again on Sat night. Winds will be strong to near gale force tonight. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from the southwest coast of Florida near 24N81W to the central Gulf near 23N90W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W will exit the basin by this evening. Gale force winds will persist over the extreme SW Gulf through early this evening. Winds and seas will diminish tonight through Fri, with peak seas to around 13 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N16W to 02N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from the equator to 05N between 31W and 50W. An additional area of scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between 05W and 13W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the southwest coast of Florida near 24N81W to the central Gulf near 23N90W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico near 18N94W. Outside of the gales, fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted behind the front in the central and W Gulf, with 6-10 ft seas. The cold front will exit the basin late this afternoon. Gale conditions over waters adjacent to Veracruz, Mexico will continue through early this evening. Winds and seas will diminish tonight through Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move eastward across the basin and exit Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia. The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 7-11 ft accompany these winds. Across the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail with mainly moderate trades in the far eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3-6 ft. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, with gale conditions developing over waters adjacent to NW Colombia Fri and Sat nights. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean later today through Fri night. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow the front and affect the NW Caribbean waters through Sat and the Windward and Mona passages from early Fri through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. A second cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the western and central Atlantic. West of 60W, the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section extends from 31N73W to southeast Florida near 26N80W and continues into the Gulf. Strong winds are noted ahead of the front north of 27N. A high pressure of 1020 mb is located near 24N61W with a ridge axis extending to the Turks and Caicos ahead of a cold front discussed above. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under the ridge between 18N-23N, with moderate to fresh winds noted elsewhere away from the incoming cold front. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft in a mix of old swells. For the forecast west of 60W, the front will move quickly eastward while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba by this afternoon, and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by tonight. Gale conditions associated with this system are expected through early Fri, mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the Florida coast. East of 60W, a stationary front extends from near 31N31W to east of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N60W. A 972 mb low pressure system well north of the area near 40N42W extends a cold front along 32N. Mainly fresh to locally strong winds are occurring north of 28N west of 40W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate areas south of 28N, with 7-11 ft seas in northerly swell. $$ Mora/Mahoney