000 AXNT20 KNHC 280556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near 31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening, the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front from Florida to just south of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Gale force winds will continue across the west central Gulf through tonight with gales developing over SW Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish below gale force Thu night, and continue diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-12 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N10W to 05N14W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N14W to 02N29W to the coast of Brazil near 04N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 30W to 49W and a cluster of scattered moderate to strong south of the mouth of the Amazon River. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. As of 0300 UTC, the cold front extends from south of Cedar Key, Florida to 22N92W to 18N94W near Veracruz, Mexico. Ahead of the cold front, a pre-frontal trough extends from north-central FL to 25N86W. A line of showers and tstorms is noted within 120nm of the pre-frontal trough from 20N-27N and east of 88W. Gale force winds prevail west of the front and south of 25N, with fresh to near gale winds elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the western Gulf, with 4-6 ft seas over the central Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the eastern Gulf as well as the SW Gulf. The cold front will exit the basin by Thu afternoon. Gale-force winds will continue across the w-central Gulf through tonight with gales over SW Gulf through Thu evening. Winds and seas diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move eastward across the basin and exit Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic to near 17N57W where it begins to weaken to near 16N66W in the NE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean with the exception of fresh to strong south of 14N between 70W-78W near the coast of Colombia. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. The stationary front across the far NE Caribbean will linger into Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the south-central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale conditions are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW Caribbean waters through Sat and over the Atlantic passages from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. The next cold front may approach the NW Caribbean on Mon into Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic. West of 65W: A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the southern portion of the forecast waters, anchored by high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 24N61W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 70W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 70W. For the forecast, the ridge east of Florida will weaken as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The strong cold front will move off northern Florida while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will stretch from 30N67W to western Cuba by Thu afternoon, and from 30N57W to eastern Cuba by Thu night. Strong gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system tonight through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the Florida coast. East of 65W, a stationary front extends from near 30N65W to east of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N57W, then weakens to near 16N66W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 65W and N of 23N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 23N to 06N. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 24N61W. Seas of 12-14 ft prevail N of 29N between 30W and 45W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range elsewhere north of 20N, and 5-8 ft south of 20N. $$ Torres