000 AXNT20 KNHC 270601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The 30-hour forecast, starting at 27/0000 UTC, consists of a cold front along 31N79W 29.5N81W. Expect W-to-NW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, within the area that is bounded by the points, from 30.5N77W to 30N78W to 30N79.5W to 31N80.5W to 31N76.5W to 30.5N77W. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, are imminent, in the area that is off the coast of Colombia, within the following points: from 11N74W to 11N76W to 12N76W to 12N74W to 11N74W. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... The 12-hour forecast consists of: a cold front along 30N92W 23N97W.5W. Expect NW-to-N winds 20 to 30 knots, and sea heights less than 8 feet, within the area that is bounded by the points: 26N96W 26N97W 28N97W 29N95W 28N94W 26N96W. Expect, also, frequent gusts to 40 kn. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 knots within 60 nm of the shore. Expect N gale-force winds about 6 hours later. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about each section. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE... The outlook period, for the next 24 hours after the initial forecast period, consists of: the persistence of SW near gale or gale, in IRVING. Please, refer to the following website, http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2058.2 620584460044.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 05N20W, 02N27W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the 07N southward between 30W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE Louisiana, to the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas, to a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 21N96W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 180 nm of the land in the Gulf of Mexico, and from 27N northward from 70W westward in the Atlantic Ocean. Areas of dense fog with visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less is possible across the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico through the early morning hours, as well as interior locations ahead or to the east-southeast of the stationary front. A surface ridge passes through Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands in the NW part of the Bahamas, across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 21N94W. The current stationary front, that is in the NW Gulf of Mexico, will continue to linger across the region through tonight. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Wednesday morning. The combined front will move quickly southeastward across the basin through Thursday. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, with gale-force winds developing in the west central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and in the SW Gulf of Mexico from late Wednesday through Thursday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish on Friday. Return S winds should begin building in the W Gulf of Mexico on Friday evening, in advance of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating cold front passes through 19N56W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 18N60W and 17N69W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the front. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond Colombia just off the border with Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure to the N of the Caribbean Sea, combined with the surface low pressure in Colombia, will support minimal gale-force winds near the northern coast of Colombia from tonight through early Wednesday morning. Gale-force wind conditions are possible again on Friday night and on Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through early Wednesday. A weakening cold front to the south of Puerto Rico will dissipate tonight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Fresh-to-strong NE winds behind the front are expected in the NW Caribbean Sea on Friday, and through the Atlantic Ocean passages from Friday afternoon through Saturday. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean Sea passages, and in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, through the weekend, with the largest swell expected on Sunday and Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N33W to 26N40W, 21N50W, to 19N56W. The front is dissipating cold from 19N56W to 18N60W and 17N69W. The front continues as stationary, to SE Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 60 nm on either side of the front. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 25N62W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west of the frontal boundary. A surface ridge is along 22N38W beyond 32N20W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from the frontal boundary eastward. A current surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 25N62W. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Wednesday night, while the associated low pressure center intensifies rapidly to the north of the forecast area. Gale-force winds and very large seas are expected with this system, from Wednesday night through Thursday night, mainly N of 27N. The wind speeds should diminish by Friday, and the sea heights should subside by Sunday. It is possible that the next cold front may move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Sunday night. $$ mt/jl