000 AXNT20 KNHC 261752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure anchored near the Canary Islands and a cold front located in the central Atlantic is generating gale force winds ahead of the front N of 30N between 37W and 39W with seas to 20 ft. Winds will diminish to strong later today. Both winds and seas will then gradually subside as the cold front weakens and dissipates by Wednesday afternoon. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast region. Near gale to gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through early Fri, mainly N of 26N from the NE Florida offshore waters all the way to the central Atlantic waters. Seas as high as 20 to 30 ft are expected across the western and central Atlantic, particularly N of 27N between 50W and 70W by Thu night, with seas of 12 ft reaching the waters just E of the northern and central Bahamas. These hazardous marine conditions will dominate the central Atlantic by Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with a developing low over NW Colombia will support minimal gale force winds over Colombia adjacent waters tonight through early Wed morning. Wave heights in the range of 10-14 ft are expected during the peak winds tonight. Gale conditions are possible again Friday and Saturday night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front will reach a stationary front analyzed along the far western Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning, and the combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds will follow the front, with gales developing over the W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed early evening through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to 10-14 ft over the SW Gulf by early Thu morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near 05N10W and continues to 04N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N14W to 04N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about a gale warning for the far western Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow ahead of a stationary front extending from south-central Louisiana SW to a 1005 mb low just east of Tamiahua, Mexico continues to support patchy dense fog over the NW gulf waters. These conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. No deep convection is associated with the front, except over Alabama and the Florida panhandle coastal waters where low to middle level moisture and diffluence aloft support scattered showers and tstms. The far eastern basin is under the influence of a ridge that extends from the SW N Atlantic into this portion of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are over the central and SW basin ahead of the front while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere E of the front. Otherwise, moderate NE winds are behind the front along the coast of Texas. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Wed morning and the combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Strong to near gale-force N winds will follow the front, with gales developing over W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed early evening through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about a gale warning for the Colombia adjacent waters. According to recent scatterometer data, strong to near gale- force winds persist from the coast of Colombia to 15N between 72W and 78W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras through tonight with seas building to 4-6 ft. Isolated showers are possible in the trade flow. Otherwise, the tail of a cold front is moving across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico today, supporting isolated showers. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri, and through the Atlantic passages on Sat. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters today through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about two gale warnings. A 1021 mb high pressure currently governs the weather across the western Atlantic, with gentle to moderate southerly winds detected by the latest scatterometer pass. For the forecast in the western Atlantic, low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters today. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly N of 26N. Winds and seas should diminish Fri and Sat. A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from 31N38W to 24N47W to the northern Leeward Islands near 18N65W. Fresh to strong winds are noted both ahead and behind the front N of 26N based on recent ASCAT data. Scattered showers moving westward ahead of the front north of 26N are weakening. This frontal boundary will continue to push across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico today. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure located northeast of the Madeira Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge. Winds increase to moderate to fresh between the Canary Islands and the W coast of Africa as well as from 20N-25N E of 28W. $$ Mahoney/Ramos