000 AXNT20 KNHC 252252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm off the coast of Colombia each night through early Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast to range between 10-13 ft each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to the coast of northern Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm north of the ITCZ and west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. A pre-frontal trough is entering the northwest Gulf waters, analyzed from 28N96W to 27N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh SE winds prevailing across the basin. A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas this evening, then stall over NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Wed morning, and the combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing over W Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about gale force winds during the overnight and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean between 69W-82W, while gentle to moderate westerly winds prevail elsewhere. Small areas of fresh to strong winds are noted south of Dominican Republic and within 90 nm north of the Colombian coastline. Mid-level water vapor imagery show dry and stable air over the basin, with only a few plumes of shallow moisture depicted in the low-level precipitable water imagery. This shallow moisture along with middle to upper level diffluent flow may support scattered showers mainly over the NW Caribbean. The Bermuda High northeast of the Bahamas combined with the Colombian Low will support trades up to gale force just north of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through Tue night. These late night/early morning gales will likely resume again Fri and Sat night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic waters Tue through Thu. A frontal boundary will remain north of the northeast Caribbean enhancing winds/seas/convection over the Greater Antilles. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri and through the passes on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 21N56W, then becomes stationary from that point to 21N74W. Fresh SW to W winds associated with the front are north of 25N between 35W and 55W as indicated by the latest scatterometer data. Fresh to strong N to NW winds prevail behind the front mainly N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the front mainly N of 27N. Surface ridge prevails over the W Atlantic waters, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N72W. Surface ridging also prevail across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 33N16W. Moderate to fresh winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge. Looking ahead in the western Atlantic, the central Atlantic front will continue to move eastward on Tue. S to SW winds will increase across the waters east of N Florida tonight. Low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters on Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds and seas should diminish by the end of the week. $$ ERA