000 AXNT20 KNHC 250004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over Colombia and Panama will continue to lead to northeast to east winds to pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through at least Wed. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-14 ft, highest around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 08W-14W, and from 03N to 06N between 33W and 42W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 16W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Naples Florida to Biloxi Mississippi. Low stratus clouds and dense sea fog is occurring along coastal portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. The fog is likely to persist through early Mon morning there, with fog also possible along the upper Texas coast from Galveston Bay eastward. Fog is also likely to develop early Thu morning from Tampa Bay through the Big Bend of Florida. The warm front will lift N into Florida tonight. A low pressure trough along the Mexican coast will bring some strong S winds tonight into Mon. A weak cold front will move off the TX coast Monday night, then stall in the NW Gulf Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined front will move E through the basin through Thu. Behind the front, strong N winds will prevail, with gales developing in portions of the SW Gulf Wed night and Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia through the next few days. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details. Elsewhere, latest ASCAT and buoy data indicate that mainly moderate to fresh trades are present, with the exceptions of fresh to strong trades over the southern part of the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are over the Windward Passage. Stable atmospheric conditions present throughout, both aloft and at the low-levels, is allowing for only small patches of rather shallow moisture in the form of scattered to broken low clouds to exist across the basin. These clouds are quickly moving westward and some may be attendant by brief passing isolated showers. As for the forecast: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with winds blowing hard to gale force during the overnight and early morning hours off Colombia through at least Wed night. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Tue night. N swell will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters late Mon into Thu night. A cold front will approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late Mon, then stall over the area into mid-week. Another cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu followed by fresh to strong northerly winds into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 32N43W to 24N62. It continues as stationary from 24N62W to South Florida. A secondary front extends from 32N49W to 28N60W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N41W to 19N61W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 90 nm ahead of the main cold front, north of 28N between 39W-46W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible isolated light showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the main cold front and stationary front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 180 nm east of the pre-frontal trough, north of 26N. Strong west to northwest winds are located to the northwest of the secondary front, mainly north of 29N between the secondary front and 66W. Strong to near gale force winds will persist in this area through Monday morning from 29N- 31N between 54W-65W, with gale force winds possible north of 31N. Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic, anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure near 31N18W. As for the forecast: The stationary front from 24N62W to South Florida will be overtaken by a reinforcing surge of high pressure tonight, then move south to along 20N by Mon morning, and into the Greater Antilles Mon night. Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central Florida Mon into Tue. Low pressure near Bermuda will bring strong W winds to the waters east of 72W and north of 28N Tue night through Wed. A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system between 60W-80W, mainly N of 27N, on Thu into Thu night. The resulting swell from this storm could produce seas over 25 ft north of 27N between 73W and 47W as it propagates from west to east Thu night through Sat morning. The 20 plus foot seas are expected east of 77W beginning Thu, and could reach as far south as 25N as it propagates eastward across the Atlantic. $$ Hagen