000 AXNT20 KNHC 232353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of a 1017 mb high center over the Atlantic near 23N69W north of Puerto Rico and low pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. This will again lead to northeast to east winds to pulse to gale force tonight and into early on Sun along and near the coast of Colombia. This favorable synoptic pattern setup will continue to promote pulsing of winds to gale force well into next week. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 8-12 ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N23W to 03N30W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 17W-19W, from 02S-05N between 27W-39W, and from 02N-04N between 48W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... An E-W oriented stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Clearwater Florida to Rockport Texas. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Keys. High pressure ridging is also nosing into the NE Gulf, north of the front. Gentle anticyclonic wind speeds are present south of the aforementioned stationary front. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are north of the frontal boundary in the NE Gulf. Satellite imagery shows overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible patches of drizzle along and within 120 nm north of the frontal boundary. Low stratus clouds and patchy dense fog are noted over the NW Gulf close to the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Dense fog, with visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less are likely to increase in coverage again during the overnight hours and into Sun morning over the Gulf waters near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. The stationary front will begin to lift northward as a warm front tonight through Sun. As the front lifts N, the fog will dissipate from coastal areas of the southern and central Texas coast by late Sun morning. Farther north, the dense fog may persist through the day Sun into Sun night from Galveston through the Louisiana coasts, possibly spreading to coastal areas of Mississippi. High pressure will build over the SE U.S. with increasing southerly return flow and building seas Sun and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced and progress eastward across the basin into Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean north of the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except for moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft or less in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere. Satellite imagery reveals patches of low-level clouds moving westward in the trade wind flow. Isolated showers are possible with some of these clouds. Scattered showers are over eastern Panama. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted over the Caribbean waters, over the islands and nearby land areas. The Bermuda High displaced southward to the Bahamas will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early morning hours off Colombia into late next week. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. N swell will propagate into the waters east of the Lesser Antilles, and through the eastern Caribbean passages, Mon night into Thu night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N53W to 27N65W to Cape Canaveral Florida. Satellite imagery shows broken low and mid-level clouds, with embedded isolated showers, along and within 120 nm north of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 120 nm SE of the front, north of 27N and east of 58W. Fresh NW winds are north of 30N between 62W-72W. A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed east of the SE Bahamas near 23N69W, with a ridge axis extending WNW to a 1019 mb high centered over the Florida Keys. Gentle winds are found through the Bahamas, with moderate to locally fresh wind speeds north of the Bahamas. A set of large northerly swell with seas of 8-11 ft associated with the frontal system extend across the waters north of 26N and east of 64W, with 3-6 ft seas noted elsewhere outside of the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W. The cold front from 27N65W to Cape Canaveral Florida will sag S to along 24N by Sun morning, and along 21N by Mon morning. A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of 25N and east of 70W Sun and Mon, bringing strong to near gale force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between 55W-65W. A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas are likely with this system east of NE Florida Thu, with storm force winds possible north of 32N. East of 55W, a cold front extends from 32N33W to 28N39W, where it becomes a weakening stationary front to 27N45W. An upper- level disturbance is located to the NW of the front. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 39W-50W. Fresh to strong south winds are within 150 nm east of the front north of about 28N, while northerly swell of 7-11 ft covers the waters north of 20N, except 11-14 ft north of 27N between 37W-50W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is centered north of the Canary Islands near 32N16W with a ridge axis reaching from the high west-southwestward through 25N37W. Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters south of 22N, with gentle to moderate trades found near the ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft in mainly fresh trade wind swell dominate the open waters of the tropical Atlantic. $$ Hagen