000 AXNT20 KNHC 221738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200|UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will combine for a tight pressure gradient offshore of northwest Colombia where winds will pulse to gale force during the overnight into the early morning hours for the next several days. Seas will build to 6-10 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N24W. The ITCZ then extends from 03N24W to 04N41W to the coast of northern Brazil near 03N51W. An area of scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 00N to 05N between 15W and 23W. Scattered showers to isolated moderate convection persist along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Onshore flow along the Texas coast is producing patchy dense fog that should lift by this afternoon. A surface trough extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico, where an interesting mesoscale low is observed on satellite imagery. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a receding ridge of high pressure that is centered northeast of the Bahamas. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle SW winds in the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate S winds in the western Gulf. 2-4 ft seas are found over the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico. Except for the patchy fog in the western Gulf, no significant weather is observed at this time. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf later today, becoming stationary tonight, and dissipating by Sat night. High pressure building north of the front over the SE United States will support a gradual increase of SE winds and building seas across W Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible in NW Gulf by Sun night. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Mon as the high shifts farther east with a weak cold front moving into NW Gulf Mon afternoon. The front should stall over NW and W Gulf on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, fresh to strong trades are noted in the south central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft across the basin outside of the stronger winds near the coast of Colombia. Mainly fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery with isolated trade wind showers possible. The Bermuda High displaced to near the Bahamas will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight hours off the coast of Colombia through the next several nights. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras on Monday and Tuesday. No significant cold fronts are expected to reach these waters for at least the next several days. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Monday and Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W, a 1019 mb high pressure near 25N72W extends a ridge from the Gulf of Mexico, across the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front extends from 31N70W to the FL/GA border. Light to gentle winds are noted underneath the ridge from 20N to 27N, with moderate to locally fresh WNW winds observed north of 27N in association with the cold front. Strong winds are noted north of 30N between 65W and 71W. NW swell of 7-11 ft prevails north of 23N and east of 68W, with 3-6 ft seas in mainly E to NE swell elsewhere outside of the Bahamas. Seas are 2-4 ft west of the Bahamas. East of 60W, a cold front enters our area near 31N48W, continuing SW to 27N53W where it becomes stationary to 25N61W. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 25N between 40W and 48W. Over the eastern Atlantic, 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 32N24W. Moderate to fresh NE flow was observed by scatterometer over most of the basin. NW swell of 8-14 ft covers the majority of the area north of 24N/25N with 6-9 ft seas south of 24N/25N. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough, is observed from the monsoon trough north to 23N between 08W and 23W. For the forecast, a cold front will move into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida today, reaching along 28N by Sat afternoon, then merging with a reinforcing front along 24N east of the Bahamas by Sun afternoon, and finally stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon afternoon. A strong Bermuda High will build over the area in the wake of this front. A new cold front may emerge off of the SE United States coast and move across the basin beginning on Tue night. $$ Mahoney/Aguirre