000 AXNT20 KNHC 220921 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern Colombia will combine for a tight pressure gradient offshore of northwest Colombia where winds will pulse to gale force during the overnight into the early morning hours for the next several days. Seas will build to 8-10 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa at the Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia border near 04N07W to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to 00N28W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 15W-20W, from 04N-06N between 41W-46W, and from 00N-05N between 48W-the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-05N between 21W-26W, and from 00N-05N between 34W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across southern Florida to near the central Texas coast. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate return flow across the eastern half of the Gulf, with moderate return flow across the western half of the Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf and 3-4 ft in the western Gulf. Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of dense fog mainly across the inner southwest Louisiana and Texas coastal waters which should dissipate by late morning. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf later today, stalling across the northern Gulf tonight, then dissipating through Sat night. High pressure building north of the front over the Carolinas will support an increase of SE winds and building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Mon as the high shifts farther east with a weak cold front moving into northwest Gulf through Mon night. The front will stall over the NW Gulf and lift northwest Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south central Caribbean northwest of the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the Carribbean, fresh to strong trades are noted in the south central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft across the basin outside of the stronger winds near the coast of Colombia. Mainly fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery with isolated trade wind showers possible. High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras early next week. Northerly swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W, 1020 mb high pressure near 25N78W extends a ridge to the Straits of Florida and to near 26N65W. Light to gentle winds are noted underneath the ridge from 23N-26N, with moderate to fresh trades south of 23N. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are noted north of 26N, except fresh to strong north of 29N ahead of an approaching cold front. NW swell of 7-11 ft prevails north of 23N and east of 68W, with 3-6 ft seas in mainly northerly swell elsewhere outside of the Bahamas. Seas are 3 ft or less west of the Bahamas. A cold front will move into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida later today, reaching along 29N by Sat morning, then merging with a reinforcing front along 23N east of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of this front. Yet another cold front may move across the basin Tue and Tue night. A series of fresh northerly swell events will accompany each boundary with building seas mainly across the northeast half of the basin. East of 55W, an old frontal boundary lingers from 32N50W to 29N55W with another remnant boundary within 90 nm ahead of it. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 25N between 39W-51W. Farther east, high pressure is centered near 30N26W. Moderate to fresh return flow is north of 22N and ahead of the front, with gentle variable winds elsewhere north of 22N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 22N. NW swell of 8-14 ft covers the majority of the area north of 24N/25N with 6-9 ft seas south of 24N/25N. $$ Lewitsky