000 AXNT20 KNHC 211043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the next couple of days. Local overnight land breeze influences are allowing these winds to pulse to gale force this morning, and again tonight along the coast of Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but may be strong enough to still support additional gales in this area late Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W, and to 03N17W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03N20W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 06N between 10W and 13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends from weak 1020 mb low pressure over the coast Texas southward into the central coast of Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is analyzed over the northeast Gulf near 27N85W. Moderate southerly flow is evident over the northwest Gulf this morning between these two pressure centers in buoy and platform observations, as well as in a recent scatterometer pass. The southerly flow is bringing relatively warm, moist air over cooler shelf waters off Texas and Louisiana, creating areas of dense fog in some areas close to the coast. Observations from platforms farther offshore where waters are a little warmer indicate no restrictions to visibility. Farther south, the scatterometer pass confirmed a band of fresh NE to E winds off the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula, between the high pressure to the north and the standard overnight trough that forms over the southwest Gulf. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft in the southwest Gulf. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas, except 2 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the dense fog along the Texas and Louisiana coasts, no significant weather is observed. For the forecast, The low over Texas will lift northeast this morning and the front will dissipate. The high pressure over the northeast Gulf will shift southeast today to the Bahamas. A trailing surface ridge will move into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf by late Fri. The front will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, then dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of front over the Carolinas will support increase SE winds and building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba. This is funneling across the island, south of ridge parked north of the region. The scatterometer pass also confirmed strong to near-gale force were occurring over much off the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds off Colombia that are expected to be pulsing to minimal gale force currently as described in the Special Features section above. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the northwest Caribbean, and 8 to 11 ft in the southeast Caribbean. Mostly moderate trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Regional radar mosaics show scattered showers moving west in the trade wind flow through mainly the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, winds and seas over the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage will diminish through tonight as the high pressure weakens and moves into the Bahamas, although this pattern will still support strong to near-gale force winds off Colombia, briefly pulsing to gale force tonight and possibly Fri night and Sat night. The high pressure weakens through Sat, but little change is expected into early next week as stronger higher pressure farther north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is dissipating from near 32N38W to the southern Bahamas. A somewhat stronger cold front is moving south between Bermuda and northeast Florida. This front is associated with a deep low pressure well north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are ongoing southeast of Bermuda currently, north of 28N between 60W and 65W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of 28N between 35W and 65W. Elsewhere, ridging extends along 26N west of the dying stationary front, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters. A few showers are still possible along the dying front. A ridge extends along 28N east of the dying front, into the eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of the ridge, with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed N swell and wind waves from the trade wind flow. Gentle to moderate winds and mostly 5 to 7 ft seas evident farther north. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a sharp upper trough from the Canary Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil is supporting a few showers across the eastern Atlantic east of 30W. For the forecast for waters west of 65W, the cold front moving south through area between Bermuda and northeast Florida will shift southeastward to along 27N by this evening, then move east of the area tonight. Another front will move south into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, along 23N east of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, then stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake of this front. $$ Christensen