000 AXNT20 KNHC 192338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will remain due north of the area through the end of the week and will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through Thu. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N38W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending from 08N40W to 01N40W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 20W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is located under the southwestern flank of a 1029 mb high pressure centered at 31N83W along the FL/GA border. Buoy, platform, and ship observations indicate moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the south through western portions of the Gulf, south of 26N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle E to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf where seas are 3 ft or less. No significant convection is observed. High pressure extending westward over the north central Gulf will shift eastward into the western Atlantic through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf between the high pressure and low pressure over Texas has diminished today. These winds will further diminish by Wed. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary into Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. High pressure centered north of the area over the southeastern US is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the Caribbean west of 70W, except for strong to near gale force winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia with 8 to 12 ft seas. Scattered showers persist just off the coast of Belize in the NW Caribbean. Isolated showers are noted from Jamaica across Hispaniola and into the western Atlantic. Winds will continue to pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through Wed night. Winds and seas diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens, although strong winds will persist off Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W: A cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N66W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues through the Turks and Caicos Islands to the NE coast of Cuba. Midday scatterometer data indicate fresh NE winds over the southeastern Bahama west of the front to 77W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere north of 25N to 31N with 4 to 8 ft seas in open waters. The stationary front will gradually dissipate Wed night. The next cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This front will be followed by yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, and reach from near 31N60W to near the NW Bahamas by late Sat. Farther east, the aforementioned ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the Atlantic mostly in NW to N swell. A sharp upper-level trough reaches from near the Cabo Verde Islands to the mouth of the Amazon River Basin. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this trough along with trade wind convergence is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 02N to 09N between 20W and 40W. $$ Stripling