000 AXNT20 KNHC 191739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 05N16W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N38W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending from 08N37W to 01N39W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 24W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is located under the southwestern flank of a 1028mb high pressure centered at 31N84W along the FL/GA border. Buoy, platform, and ship observations indicate moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the north central and northwest Gulf. 5 to 7 ft seas are noted in the northwest Gulf off the Texas and Mexico coasts. Moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf with 3 to 6 ft seas. No significant convection is observed. For the forecast, high pressure over the north central Gulf will shift eastward into the western Atlantic through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf between the high pressure and low pressure over Texas will diminish today. These winds will further diminish by Wed. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary into Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. High pressure north of the area over the southeastern US is supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the Caribbean, except for strong to near gale force winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia with 8 to 12 ft seas. Scattered showers are occurring just off the coast of Belize in the NW Caribbean. Isolated showers are noted from Jamaica across Hispaniola and into the western Atlantic. For the forecast, winds will continue to pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through Wed night. Winds and seas diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens, although strong winds will persist off Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N66W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The latest scatterometer data indicate fresh NE winds over the southeastern Bahama west of the front to 77W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere north of 25N to 31N with 4 to 8 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate Wed night. The next cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This front will be followed by yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, and reach from near 31N60W to near the NW Bahamas by late Sat. Farther east, the aforementioned ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the Atlantic mostly In N swell. A sharp upper-level trough reaches from near the Cabo Verde Islands to the mouth of the Amazon River. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this trough along with trade wind convergence is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 20N between 19W and 33W. $$ Torres/Mahoney