000 AXNT20 KNHC 191023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 04N20W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N35W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending from 07N35W to 00N37W. Another segment extends from 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the northern Gulf coast from the northern coast of Texas to a 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W. Buoy and platform data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas, between the high pressure to the east, and low pressure farther west over central Texas. Moderate E to SE winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf with 2 to 4 ft, except for light and variable winds over the northeast Gulf with seas 2 ft or less. No significant convection is observed. For the forecast, the high pressure over the north east Gulf will shift eastward into the western Atlantic through mid week. The fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf between the high pressure and the lower pressure over Texas will diminish today as the lower pressure shifts farther north. The flow of moist southerly winds across cooler shelf waters may allow sea fog over coastal waters later in the week. Farther south, a trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary into Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. High pressure north of the area over the Florida Panhandle is supporting fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across most of the southeast and south-central Caribbean, with strong to near gale force winds pulsing to minimal gales off the coast of Colombia with 8 to 12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are observed on regional radar moving across the Windward Islands and off the north coast of Venezuela. Isolated showers are possible from eastern Cuba to near Swan Island along the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will weaken and shift eastward. This will allow winds and seas to diminish Thu through Sat, although strong winds will persist off Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier scatterometer satellite data and recent buoy data indicate fresh E winds north of 30N west of the front to 75W, with 8 to 11 ft seas. Fresh to strong SW winds are north of 30N within 120 nm e of the front, between the front and a ridge reaching from high pressure farther east near 28N38W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds are evident south of this ridge from the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Islands will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba tonight into Wed, then dissipate Wed night. Another cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This front will be followed by yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, and reach from near 31N60W to near the NW Bahamas by late Sat. Farther east, the aforementioned ridge is supporting gentle to moderate to winds north of 25N and moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the Atlantic mostly in N swell. A sharp upper trough reaches from near the Cabo Verde Islands to the mouth of the Amazon River. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this trough along with trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers from 01N to 06N between 25W and 40W. $$ Christensen