000 AXNT20 KNHC 180513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Overnight land breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia at 06N10W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the boundaries between 18W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure over central Texas through the Straits of Florida. Dry conditions prevail over the northwestern portion of the basin, while scattered showers are noted across the southeastern portion. Scatterometer data depicted light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, while moderate winds are noted near the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy, ship and altimeter data indicated seas of 3 ft or less across the northwest half of the basin, and 3-5 ft across the southeast half of the basin in lingering and decaying northwest-north swell generated by a cold front passage a couple of days ago. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast Mexico. These winds will diminish some by mid week. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from central Cuba to north-central Honduras. Upper level ridging and deep layered dry air is allowing for drier conditions to prevail in the eastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N-NE winds west the front and south of 19N, with gentle to moderate N-NE winds west of the front and N of 19N. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail east of the front outside of the south-central Caribbean as described in the Special Features section above. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the basin, except to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. The stationary front will dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring increasing winds and building seas over the central and northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba starting Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N56W to 21N76W where it then continues as a stationary front across western Caribbean. Scattered showers are possible along and west of the front affecting the Bahamas and adjacent waters. Surface ridge is building behind the front, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N66W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds prevailing across the tropical Atlantic south of 22N while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Lingering large NW swell of 7-11 ft persists north of 26N and west of the front to around 75W, and north of 29N and east of the front to 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft cover the remainder of the waters outside of the Bahamas, with seas mainly 3 ft or less inside the Bahamas. To the east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb centered near 36N16W. For the forecast, the front over the west Atlantic will completely stall overnight while a reinforcing by cold front moves into the area through Mon. The merging front will extend from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night, then reach from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on Tue while gradually weakening through the middle of the week. The next cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Wed night, and dissipate along 27N by late Thu. Another cold front is forecast to reach the northern waters on Fri. $$ ERA