000 AXNT20 KNHC 162137 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong W-NW winds have arrived behind a strong cold front and reinforcing trough in the SW N Atlantic, with frequent gusts N of 28N. These winds will persist into early Sun. Seas will be up to 13-15 ft along 31N during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N33W to near the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 35W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N between 24W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high centered along the coast at the the Mexico/Texas border continues to build in across the basin behind a now departed cold front. This high has a ridge axis extending southward to the western Bay of Campeche and to the east- southeast to the Straits of Florida. Morning scatterometer data showed fresh to strong W-NW flow in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to fresh NW-N flow in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate flow in the western Gulf closest to the high center. Lingering large seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters east of 92W, with seas of 3-6 ft west of 92W. Fresh to strong NW winds over the north-central and northeast Gulf will diminish to 20 kt or less tonight. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up over the northwest Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas. These winds will diminish some by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the SW N Atlantic to across central Cuba to along the north coast of Honduras and Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are possible east of the boundary. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds follow the front along with 5-7 ft, locally to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Morning scatterometer data showed mainly moderate to fresh trades east of the front, except gentle winds within 120 nm southeast of the front. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft east of the front, except locally to 8 ft northwest of the coast of Colombia, and 2-4 ft within 120 nm southeast of the front. The cold front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will stall tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring increasing winds and building seas over the south- central Caribbean, with gale conditions possible near the coast of Colombia at night starting Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... There is a gale warning in effect for the SW N Atlantic basin. Please see Special Features section for more details. West of 55W, a cold front extends from 32N71W to across the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 22N and east of the front. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong southerly flow N of 24N within 90-180 nm ahead of the front, with gentle to moderate southerly flow elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft, except 4-7 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight before stalling from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sun, dissipating on Mon. A reinforcing cold front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and stall from 27N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon night into Tue. The front will then reach from from 23N65W to eastern Cuba on Wed while gradually dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to reach the north waters by Wed night. East of 55W, a cold front reaches from 32N40W to 26N53W. Scattered showers are possible ahead of this front. A 1031 mb high centered west of Portugal near 39N15W supports a ridge which reaches southwest-west across the remainder of the waters. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters S of 22N, locally strong near 07N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere. $$ Lewitsky