484 AXNT20 KNHC 151746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10Nbetween 10W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf near 25N90W to the east coast of Mexico near 23N98W. An ASCAT pass at 1432 UTC revealed fresh N winds in the western half of the basin and gentle to moderate S-SE flow off the western coast of Florida. Fresh SW winds are noted in buoy data ahead of the front over the northern Gulf. Radar as of 1600 UTC shows showers and thunderstorms east of the front, off the coast of Florida near 30N84W. Isolated showers are also ahead and within 50 nm of the front in the central Gulf. Seas range from 4 to 8 ft behind the front. Farther south, a stationary front reaches from the Straits of Florida to the western Caribbean Sea. The cold front from the will move eastward across the entire Gulf through tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas to increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the coast of NW Cuba, and into the western Caribbean. Showers are along the front due to light, moist southerly flow overrunning the frontal boundary. A weak surface trough is noted from the NE coast of Cuba to 15N82W supporting light showers in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the entire basin with the exception of just off the coast of Colombia where fresh to strong trade winds are noted along with seas ranging from 6-9 ft. The cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will move SE through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will support expansion of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through Tue night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The stationary front across the Caribbean and the Straits of Florida extends to 27N64W, where it transitions to a cold front to 32N58W. A secondary cold front extends from 32N65W to 28N71W. This front is associated with a rapidly intensifying 995 mb developing storm center northeast of Bermuda. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SW-W wind along and just ahead of the cold front north of 27N, with seas reaching 10 ft. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted west of 55W. Farther east, a 1034 mb high pressure center near Madeira is supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large area off the coast of Africa, east of 40E and south of the Canary Islands. The cold front sweeping eastward over the waters north of 27N will reinforce the weak stationary front. The merged front will continue eastward and move east of 65W late today. The next cold front will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. $$ Mora