000 AXNT20 KNHC 150001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 07N11W to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to 03N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N E of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level water vapor imagery show a plume of air advecting moisture from the E Pacific tropical waters to the SW and SE Gulf of Mexico, which is supporting the cloudiness over this region of the basin. Shallow moisture associated with the tail end of a dissipating stationary front may support some isolated showers tonight in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails basin-wide anchored by a 1019 mb high near 24N91W, which provides mainly light to gentle variable wind flow. Over the NW basin, moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the next cold front. The center of high pressure over the central Gulf will weaken and drift E tonight. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Fri, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri afternoon. Reinforcing cold air with increase winds behind the front will prevail across the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat while the front weakens and sinks SE of the basin. High pressure and generally tranquil marine conditions will prevail over the Gulf Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level ridge supports generally fair weather across most of the basin this evening with some isolated showers over the NW Caribbean being supported by shallow moisture associated with a dissipating stationary front that extends across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Trade winds across the central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Fri as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then gradually stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun. High pressure will build north of the region Mon night through Tue and strengthen winds across the entire basin, with gale force winds possible along the Colombian coast Mon night and and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front from 31N64W across the northern Bahamas to the north central coast of Cuba will gradually be overtaken by a cold front currently extending from 31N72W to 27N76W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind the stationary front N of 27N along with scattered showers and isolated tstms between 63W and 67W. The front will sweep eastward and move east of 65W Fri. A second cold front will enter the NW waters Fri night and reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates the remainder basin and supports NE to E fresh to strong winds over W Africa adjacent waters, including the Cape Verde Islands. $$ Ramos