000 AXNT20 KNHC 131706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 23W and 34W. Scattered showers are also noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front, extending from a weak cold front moving through the western Atlantic, reaches the Bahamas near 26N77W to the western coast of Cuba near 23N84W. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N92W to 2N95W. Scattered showers are noted across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Channel north to the Florida Panhandle and east of 90W. ASCAT indicated fresh to strong north to northwest winds west of the trough and moderate to fresh northeast winds east of 94W. A surface trough across the SW Gulf will maintain strong to near gale force NW winds near the coast of Mexico today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Fri, and extend from the Florida panhandle to southern Mexico near Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing cold air will increase winds behind the front in the northern Gulf Fri night and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the comparatively lower surface pressure in Colombia and Panama is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Scatterometer data from this morning shows 20 to 25 kt winds in this area. High pressure centered south of Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean today, before winds and seas gradually diminish Thu and Fri as high pressure shifts eastward. These conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb low pressure near 35N60W to the Bahamas near 24N77W, where it becomes stationary. The stationary front continues to the western coast of Cuba near 23N84W. Scattered showers are observed and behind the frontal boundary from 27N to 31N between the coast of Florida and 70W. An additional area of scattered showers is noted from 27N to 32N and between 55W and 65W, moving east. A stationary front is analyzed across much of the subtropical Atlantic from 31N38W to 23N65W. Isolated showers are noted along the frontal boundary. A ridge of high pressure is northeast of the stationary front, and a 1033 mb high is centered near 35N16W. Broad anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across 06N-23N between 17W to the Lesser Antilles near 59W. An area of fresh to strong is also noted to the northeast of the Canary Islands from 16N-22N between 16W-21W. The weak cold front in the western Atlantic across the northern Bahamas to the northern coast of Cuba will stall and dissipate this afternoon through tonight. A secondary cold front will push east of the area Fri. SW winds will increase north of the Bahamas Fri night ahead of a strong cold front, expected to move east of Florida on Sat. The front will reach from 31N73W across the Bahamas to central Cuba Sat night, and from 27N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. $$ MTorres/Mahoney