000 AXNT20 KNHC 130549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure that is to the north of the area and the comparatively lower surface pressure in Colombia and Panama, is helping to support strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds are forecast to start during the late night/early morning hours of this morning. The gale-force winds are forecast to stop on Wednesday morning. Expect wave heights reaching from 10 feet to 13 feet in the areas of the comparatively fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 04N35W, 03N44W, 05N48W, and to the coastal border of Brazil and French Guiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 27W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, to just offshore NW Cuba. A surface trough continues from offshore NW Cuba, to the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface trough extends from 17N86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula, to 22N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 23N southward from 90W westward. The current cold front, across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, will stall on Wednesday, and then dissipate on Thursday. A surface trough near the coast of Mexico will maintain strong to near gale-force northwest winds in the far western Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will be following the front, as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. Another cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, to just offshore NW Cuba. A surface trough continues from offshore NW Cuba, to the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface trough extends from 17N86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula, to 22N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W, to 10N80W, across western Panama and Costa Rica, and beyond 09N84W in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 74W westward. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation. High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night, with gale force winds expected off the coast of Colombia overnight. The wind speeds and the sea heights in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish, from Thursday through Sunday, as high pressure shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N74W, to 30N76W, across the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to just offshore NW Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is within 500 nm to 700 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, and within 300 nm to the NW of the cold front. A cold front passes through 32N33W to 30N36W. A stationary front continues from 30N36W to 29N40W 25N50W 23N60W 23N66W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, to the north and northwest of the cold front/stationary front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N62W. A surface ridge passes through 32N22W to 28N33W, to 24N40W, and to 22N58W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 60W eastward. The current weak cold front, from 31N76W across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, will stall and dissipate on Wednesday. Reinforcing cold air on Thursday will push the front to the east of the area through Friday. Southerly winds will increase to the north of the Bahamas on Friday night, in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast on Saturday. The front will reach from 31N73W across the Bahamas to central Cuba Sat night; and from 27N65W to the Windward Passage by late Sunday. $$ mt/dm