479 AXNT20 KNHC 121752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low is currently supporting strong winds offshore Colombia, as evidenced by the latest scatterometer data. Winds will return to gale force tonight, and then diminish to strong speeds early Wed, as well as Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 9-14 ft, and will also subside Thu through Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwest and west to 03N20W, where morning scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ at 03N20W. The ITCZ continues to the coast near the border of Brazil and French Guiana at 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the African coast from 00N to 06N east of 12W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the ITCZ from 00N to 08N between 27W and 42W. Scattered showers are also noted north of the ITCZ near the coast of French Guiana. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 12/1200 UTC, a cold front extends from 30N81W in northeastern Florida to 25N85W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues along the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula to 18N92W. Scattered showers, enhanced by upper level divergence, are present from Cuba extending north to the Apalachicola Bay. A surface trough exists in the southwest Gulf off the coast from Veracruz to Tampico, with strong to near gale force winds. Offshore flow is developing low level clouds in the western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, the cold front will stall across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel through Wed, and dissipate through Thu. A coastal trough will maintain strong to near gale force northwest winds in the far western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through Wed before diminishing Wed night as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf. Another front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, with fresh winds and building seas following the front as it moves over the eastern Gulf through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Elsewhere, the latest ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds in the remainder of the area. Scattered moderate to strong convection persists in the southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and extreme southeast Nicaragua. Scattered showers in the northwestern Caribbean continue to dissipate near southern Cuba. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Wed night, with speeds reaching gale force off Colombia overnight tonight into early Wed. Winds over the central Caribbean will diminish and seas will subside Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. E swell will propagate from the central Caribbean into the southwestern Caribbean through Wed, then subside through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1026 mb centered about 200 nm southeast of Bermuda dominates the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from the 1017 mb low pressure located at 33N76W southwestward over northeastern Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers are present from the northern Bahamas to the low pressure. A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 25N51W, where it becomes stationary to 23N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 31N between 31W to 40W. Fresh to strong southwest winds were observed by morning scatterometer data ahead of the cold front north of 28N to 32N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted across the eastern Atlantic from ITCZ to 20N. A weak cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast this morning will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed. The front will stall and start to dissipate Wed ahead of a reinforcing front moving across the waters north of 27N that will move east of the area through Fri. Winds and seas will increase north of the Bahamas late Fri ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Sat, and reach from near 31N73W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Sat. Fair weather will dominate the eastern Atlantic, driven by the 1031mb high pressure at 36N18W. $$ MTorres/Mahoney