000 AXNT20 KNHC 112338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico is producing gale force winds over the SW Gulf. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds, affecting mainly the waters S of 22N W of 95W, including the Veracruz area. Seas with this gale event are currently in the 10-14 ft range over the SW Gulf. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, with seas subsiding some. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front that extends from a 1016 mb low pressure near 29N87W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support gale force winds overnight tonight into Tuesday morning, and repeat again Tue night into early Wed morning at about the same times. Wave heights are forecast to build to 12-14 ft in the gale force wind area. These winds and seas will diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Sierra Leone at 07N12W and continues to 04N20W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 05N35W and to the coast of Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between 08W-16W, and from 04N-07N between 28W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Gale force winds are observed over the SW Gulf in the wake of a cold front moving across the Gulf waters. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. As of 18Z, a low pressure of 1016 mb is centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 29N87W. The aforementioned cold front extends from the low center to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The low pressure will move into the central Florida Panhandle tonight while the cold front will slowly move into the far southeast Gulf through mid week, and will dissipate over the Straits of Florida through Thu. High pressure of 1033 mb centered over Texas follows the front. The associated ridge dominates the western half of the basin. Abundant cloudiness is noted on latest visible imagery over the Gulf waters, with cold air stratocumulus clouds behind the front. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. A coastal trough over the western Gulf will maintain strong NW winds between the trough and the coast of Mexico Tue and Wed, while high pressure building across the northern Gulf will allow winds and seas to diminish elsewhere. Looking ahead, the next cold front will reach the NW Gulf on Fri, producing fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front is forecast to exit the Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Elsewhere, the most recent satellite-derived wind data provided observations of fresh to strong winds over most of the east and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the lee of eastern Cuba to about 18N. High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports these winds, that are forecast to diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the SW Caribbean and near the coast of Nicaragua, particularly from 10N-18N between 80W-83W. Similar convection can also be found over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are helping to induce this convective activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, Las Bahamas and the State of Florida. A cold front extends from 31N47W to 23N62W, where it becomes stationary to just north of the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N74W. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is associated with the front, forecast to dissipate through tonight. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted based on latest scatterometer data N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to about to 24N and E of 35W to the coast of west Africa. Similar wind speeds are also observed N of the ITCZ to about 12N between 35W and 46W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range within this area of winds, forecast to persist on Tue. A weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue morning, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed. The front will stall an start to dissipate Thu from 31N65W to the southern Bahamas, ahead of a reinforcing front moving across the waters north of 27N that will move east of the area through Fri. Winds and seas will increase north of the Bahamas late Fri ahead of another cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Sat. $$ GR