000 AXNT20 KNHC 110555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico near 27.5N94W and is currently producing gale force winds. NOAA buoy 42019 near 27.9N 95.3W recorded sustained winds as high as 39 kt with gusts to 49 kt around 11/0100 UTC, with significant wave heights of 14 ft reported. A recent ASCAT pass from 11/0148 UTC showed gale force N winds up to 40 kt on the west side of the low, from 27N-29N between 94W-96W. A cold front extends from the low pressure to 24N94.5W to south of Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. Gale force winds to 35 kt are also occurring elsewhere to the NW of this cold front. The low will weaken as it tracks ENE across the N Gulf into the Florida Big Bend area by Tue. As winds over the NW Gulf diminish below gale force later this morning, gale force N winds will continue behind the trailing cold front offshore of Tampico. Gales will then reach waters offshore Veracruz Mexico by midday today. The gales near Veracruz will continue through this evening before diminishing during the predawn hours on Tue. Seas of 10-14 ft are expected with this gale event. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support strong to minimal gale force winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia now from 11/0600 UTC through 1200 UTC this morning, and again overnight tonight into Tue morning from 12/0600 UTC to 12/1500 UTC. Seas are forecast to build to 11-13 ft in the gale force wind area. The high pressure will weaken on Tue as it shifts eastward across the central Atlantic, allowing for these winds to diminish below gale force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to the coast of Brazil at 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 15W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 48W along the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... Gale force winds are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for details. A cold front extends from the aforementioned 1013 mb low pressure near 27.5N94W to 24N94.5W to south of Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. A stationary front extends ENE from the low to 29N89W. Scattered moderate rain showers are occurring between the low and southern Louisiana. A line of moderate showers is also likely along the trailing cold front extending to the SW Gulf. The latest ASCAT pass shows 35-40 kt winds west of the low, with 30-35 kt gale force winds elsewhere over the NW Gulf west of the cold front and north of the stationary front. Strong S winds precede the cold front. Fresh SE winds cover most of the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E winds are seen over the far eastern Gulf, to the west of Florida. The front will exit the southeastern Gulf Tue night and be over the Straits of Florida Wed. High pressure will build over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front, allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside across much of the basin, with the exception of the SW Gulf. A trough will persist over the far SW Gulf Tue and Wed. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will support fresh to strong NW to N winds S of 26N and W of 96W on Tue. These conditions will persist on Wed, with seas building to 8-9 ft. On Wed, winds of 25-30 kt are expected near the Veracruz area. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section for more information. The most recent satellite-derived wind data provided observations of strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Near gale to minimal gale force winds are expected early this morning near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate showers are noted across much of the western Caribbean, south of 20N and west of 75W. Fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean will continue through late Wed night, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Fri. Northeast to east trades will reach gale force along and near the coast of Colombia again Mon night into early Tue. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Wed, then become stationary from west-central Cuba to the NW Caribbean and dissipate by early Thu as high pressure builds from the Gulf of Mexico southeastward across the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N51.5W to 26N60W to 23N68W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba near 20N74.5W. Isolated to scattered showers are east of the front N of 27N. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail across the western Atlantic, south of 31N and west of 60W. The stationary front will dissipate later this morning. Another cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast Wed, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba by late Thu. Winds and seas will increase Fri off northeast Florida ahead of another front expected to move off the coast by Fri night. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure located S of the Azores near 32N28W. Strong trade winds prevail south of the high from 07N-24N between 40W and the west coast of Africa. Near gale NE winds are east of the Cape Verde Islands from 13N-22N between 17W-23W. These winds will persist through today. $$ Hagen