000 AXNT20 KNHC 101136 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong winds to winds frequently gusting to gale force are expected tonight over portions of the NW Gulf of Mexico in association with developing low pressure and its associated cold front. As the front moves across the basin, gale force north winds are expected behind the front south of 24N and west of 95W beginning early Mon. The gale conditions will translate from offshore Tampico Mon morning to offshore Veracruz Mon afternoon. These gale force winds will begin to diminish by Mon evening. Wave heights over this area will build to 10-13 ft Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between strong western Atlantic high that will build southeastward over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America will result in strong to gale force northeast to east winds along and to within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Mon night into early Tue. Wave heights with these winds will be in the range of 9-14 ft. The high pressure will weaken during Tue as it shifts east- southeastward across the central Atlantic allowing for these gale force winds to diminish to strong speeds. Wave heights will slightly subside by late Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N14W to 06N21W, where over scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W to 02N40W and to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-36W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-30W and along and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-24W. Similar activity is south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 06N11W to 04N19W to 03N24W and to 03N29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for details. Strong high pressure and associated dry and stable conditions are present over the eastern and central sections of the Gulf. Meanwhile, areas of rain along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving east-northeast over the NW Gulf and over the northern section of the far western Gulf as upper- level divergence east of a shortwave trough begins to infiltrate those areas of the Gulf. East to southeast winds are increasing over the far western part of the NW Gulf, and will continue to do so throughout the day, with wave heights building to possibly 10 ft. Fresh east to southeast winds are over the remainder of the western Gulf, while gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The strong high pressure over the area will shift eastward and weaken today in response to the next cold front that will approach the NW Gulf. This front along with developing low pressure will move to along the Texas coast this afternoon. The front will reach from southwestern Louisiana to low pressure near 28N95W 1014 mb tonight. The low will quickly track northeastward and reach to just south of the western Florida panhandle on Mon afternoon and to near Apalachicola, Florida by late Mon night, with the trailing cold front to 25N87W and to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. The low will move over northeastern Florida by Tue afternoon, with the cold front extending southwestward to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula before exiting the Gulf Tue night. Strong winds reaching frequent gusts to gale force are expected over some parts of the NW Gulf Sun night. Gale force winds are possible south of 24N and west of 95W to along the coast of Mexico Mon through Mon night. Expect for areas of rain along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf through tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to 19N76W, then begins to dissipate to across Jamaica and to 17N81W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen along and east of the front to near 72W, including the southern part of the Windward Passage. At the same time, increasing clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to the southwestern Caribbean. This activity is being aided by a short-wave trough that is embedded in strong westerly flow aloft over that area of the sea along with the additional ingredient of the eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough that extends into northwestern Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean between 65W-71W. An overnight ASCAT pass highlighted fresh north-northeast winds from 15N to 19N between 81W-86W. Fresh trades prevail across the central Caribbean south and east of the front, with strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate northeast to east winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh northeast to east trades over the central Caribbean will increase to strong speeds over much of the central Caribbean this afternoon and continue through late Wed night, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Thu night. Trades will reach gale force speeds along and near the coast of Colombia Mon night. See the Special Features section above for details. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean on Tue, then become stationary and dissipate from central Cuba to the northwest Caribbean by Wed evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N58W to 24N68W and to the Windward Passage area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 29N and east of the front to 53W, while isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the front from 25N to 29N. Similar activity is south of 22N east of the front to near 65W. An overnight ASCAT pass indicated fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of 29N and east of the front to near 50W and fresh to strong winds north of 29N west of the front to 68W. Related wave heights are in the range of 9-12 ft. Strong high pressure is present to the east of this front anchored by a 1030 mb high center that is located at 33N28W. Overnight ASCAT data indicates an extensive area of fresh to strong northeast to east trades that covers the Atlantic waters south of a line from 25N35W to 20N45W to 15N61W. Wave heights generated by these persistent trades over this extensive fetch area of the Atlantic are in the range of 8-11 ft. As for the forecast: The cold front will move east of the area this evening. Strong winds and large seas north of 29N west of the front to 75W will shift east of the area this afternoon. Another cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue. It will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 32N67W to 26N72W and to central Cuba Wed afternoon, then move east of the area by early Thu. Yet another cold front will move across the NW part of the area on Thu. $$ Aguirre