000 AXNT20 KNHC 100501 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds are expected tonight over portions of the NW Gulf of Mexico in association with a developing low pressure along a cold front. As the front moves across the basin, gale force N winds are expected behind the front south of 24N and west of 95W beginning early Mon. The gale conditions will migrate from offshore Tampico Mon morning to offshore Veracruz Mon afternoon. The gales will begin to diminish by Mon evening. Seas across this area will build to 10-13 ft Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N30W to 02N40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for details. Surface ridging and dry air currently dominate the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, east of 93W. Scattered showers are noted off the Texas and NE Mexico coasts. Moderate N winds prevail across the eastern half of the Gulf. Fresh E winds are over the western Gulf, west of 93W. A cold front, with a low pressure along the front, will reach the Texas coast this afternoon and move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this evening. The low will quickly track E-NE and reach to near Apalachicola Florida by late Mon night, with the cold front extending from the low to near 25N86W to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will exit the basin Tue night. Strong to gale force winds are expected over portions of the western Gulf tonight through Mon night behind the low and front. Expect areas of rain along with scattered showers and tstorms this afternoon into tonight over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N76W to 18N80W, where it begins to dissipate to the eastern tip of Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are along and east of the front. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen south of 13N between 73W-84W in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh N-NE winds covering the NW Caribbean to the NW of the front. Fresh trades prevail across the central Caribbean south and east of the front, with strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate winds are over the eastern Caribbean. The cold front will become stationary later today from central Hispaniola to near 15N75W and dissipate tonight. Fresh trades will increase to strong speeds over much of the central Caribbean tonight through most of Wed, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Thu night. Northeast to east winds will reach near gale force at night along and near the coast of Colombia through Tue. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean on Tue, then become stationary and dissipate from central Cuba to the NW Caribbean by Wed evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N60W to 24N70W to eastern Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered showers prevail along and east of the front mainly north of 27N and east of 65W. Strong W winds prevail behind the front to 70W, north of 30N, where seas are 9-14 ft. Strong SW winds are found within 210 nm ahead of the front, north of 28N, where seas are 8-12 ft. For the forecast west of 60W, the cold front will reach from near 32N57W to 26N65W to 23N68W and weakening stationary to northern Hispaniola by this afternoon. Strong winds and large seas are expected today north of 27N on both sides of the front. Another cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue. It will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N68W to 26N72W to central Cuba Wed afternoon, then move east of the area by early Thu. East of 60W: A high pressure ridge dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high near the Azores. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trade winds from 06N-26N between 40W and the coast of Africa. Fresh trades are noted from 05N-20N between 40W-60W. Gentle winds are closer to the surface ridge axis, which extends from 34N29W to 30N36W to 26N51W to 21N70W. $$ Hagen