000 AXNT20 KNHC 092335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A new cold front will be moving off the Texas coast Sun night. As the front moves across the basin, gale-force northerly winds are expected behind the front S of 23N, and within 150 nm of the coast of Mexico beginning early Mon. These conditions will begin to diminish by Mon evening. Seas across this area will build to 10-15 ft Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03.5N34W to 04.5N47W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm north of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf. A surface ridge extends SSE across the basin from a 1030 mb high over Oklahoma. The ridge has weakened slightly today as a cold front in the NW Caribbean has drifted SE. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf, with NE to E winds across the west half. The ridge will slide east tonight and Sun, with weakening winds across the east half of the Gulf Sun and strong southerly return flow developing west of 92W, in advance of the next cold front. The next cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday night will bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The front will extend from the central Gulf coast to the south-central Bay of Campeche on Mon, then northern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Tue, then weaken considerably and exit the basin late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spreading high clouds across all but southeast portions of the Caribbean. A stationary front extends across the western Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm on either side of the front. To the south, the proximity of the monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 74W-83W. Morning scatterometer data depicted moderate winds across the basin, with locally fresh winds over the south central portion north of the Colombian coast, and fresh NE winds immediately behind the stalled front. The front will dissipate through Sun. Fresh trade winds will prevail across the basin this weekend, with nightly pulses of strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. Strong trade winds are expected in the central and eastern Caribbean Mon and Tue, with nightly winds near gale-force north of Colombia Mon through Wed. The next cold front will approach the NW Caribbean on Tue night into Wed and stall near the Yucatan Passage. This front could linger across the region through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic cold front passes through 32N65W to the SE Bahamas area near 23N73W to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of the front mainly north of 25N. Strong W to NW winds prevail behind the front to the north of 27N, where seas are 9-14 ft. Strong SW winds are found along and ahead of the front, north of 27N to 58W, where seas are 8-11 ft. To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N43W to 28N54W. A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 36N26W. Fresh to strong trade winds south of the ridge dominate the tropical Atlantic south of 17N to near 57W. The west Atlantic front will extend from 31N59W to northern Hispaniola tonight, then from 30N60W to north of Hispaniola on Sun as the tail-end of the front dissipates. Strong winds and large seas are expected north of 26N on both sides of the front through tonight. Another cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue. $$ Stripling