000
AXNT20 KNHC 091743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A cold front will be moving off the Texas coast Sun night. As 
the front continues moving across the basin, gale-force winds are
expected S of 23N along the coast of Mexico on Mon. These 
conditions will dissipate by late Mon. Please read the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N18W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 200 nm north of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale 
Warning in effect for the western Gulf.

A surface ridge extends across the basin. These conditions will 
prevail through Sun. Scatterometer data depicts moderate 
northwesterly winds across the basin. 

The next cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday night 
will bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.  The front will extend from central Florida to 
the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night, then exit the basin on 
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is pushing high level 
moisture across the Caribbean. Water vapor satellite imagery
shows that a ridge extends from northern coastal sections of 
Venezuela, to northern sections of Nicaragua. A stationary front 
extends across the western Caribbean from 20N79W to 17N83W. 
Scattered showers are within 60 nm on either side of the front.
To the south, the proximity of the monsoon trough is enhancing 
scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 76W-82W. 
Scatterometer data depicts moderate winds across the basin, with 
locally fresh winds over the south central portion mainly north 
of the Colombian coast.

The front will dissipate through Sun. Fresh trade winds will 
prevail across the basin this weekend, with nightly pulses of 
strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. Strong trade winds 
are expected in the central and eastern Caribbean Mon and Tue, 
with nightly near gale-force winds north of Colombia Mon through 
Wed. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N66W to the Bahamas area near 
22N77W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of 
the front mainly north of 27N. To the east, a surface trough 
extends from 26N50W to 23N54W. Surface ridge prevails across the 
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure 
centered near 39N26W.

The west Atlantic front will extend from 31N62W to the Windward 
Passage tonight, then stall and weaken from 31N68W to Hispaniola 
on Sun. Strong winds and large seas are expected north of 26N on 
both sides of the front through tonight. Another cold front is 
expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tue. 


$$
ERA