000 AXNT20 KNHC 091032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N20W to 04N33W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and from 02N to 04N between 40W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Texas/Louisiana border, to Mexico from 19N to 20N between 96W and 97W. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. A cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday night will bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Gale-force winds are possible south of 23N along the coast of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. The front will extend from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night, then exit the basin on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is pushing high level moisture across the Caribbean Sea. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that a ridge extends from northern coastal sections of Venezuela, to northern sections of Nicaragua. A cold front passes through central Cuba to the coast of Honduras near 16N87W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across southern sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate showers are from 13N southward and 70W westward. Broken low and mid-level clouds and embedded showers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the low level wind flow. The cold front will stall across the NW Caribbean today and dissipate through Sunday. Fresh trade winds will prevail across the basin this weekend, with nightly pulses of strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. Strong trade winds are expected in the central and eastern Caribbean Monday and Tuesday, with near gale-force winds north of Colombia Monday night through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N70W, to the Bahamas near 24N77W, across central Cuba, to the coast of Honduras near 16N87W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and embedded moderate showers are NW of a line that passes through 32N48W to 24N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 25N59W. The cold front will extend from 28N65W to the Windward Passage tonight, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to Haiti on Sunday. Strong winds and large seas are expected north of 26N on both sides of the front through tonight. Another cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tuesday. $$ Mundell