000 AXNT20 KNHC 090603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 09 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The METEO FRANCE forecast, for the OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the initial forecast period, consists of: persistence of North or Northeast near gale or gale in MADEIRA. Please, refer to the following website, http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA7.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.1630.0 81635133920.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 03N20W, 04N33W, and to 03N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and from 02N to 04N between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 135 nm of the coast of South America between 58W and 61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 135 nm of the coast of South America, elsewhere, between 50W and 61W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front from the last 24 hours has moved through the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Texas/Louisiana border, to Mexico from 19N to 20N between 96W and 97W. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday. A cold front moving off the Texas coast on Sunday night will bring strong NW winds across the western and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Gale-force winds are possible S of 23N along the coast of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. The front will extend from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night, and exit the basin on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is pushing high level moisture across the Caribbean Sea. Water vapor satellite imagery, and the GFS model for 200 mb, show that a ridge extends from northern coastal sections of Venezuela, to northern sections of Nicaragua. A cold front passes through central Cuba to the coast of Honduras near 16N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, within 60 nm to 120 nm to the NW of the cold front, and within 60 nm to 90 nm to the SE of the cold front. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across southern sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation. A cold front from central Cuba to northern Honduras will stall across the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and dissipate by Sunday. Fresh trade winds will prevail across the basin through the weekend, with nightly pulses of strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. Strong trade winds are expected in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea on Monday and Tuesday, with near gale-force winds north of Colombia from Monday night through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N71W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W, across central Cuba, to the coast of Honduras near 16N87W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the NW of the line that passes through 32N48W to 24N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N56W. The current cold front, from 31N71W across the Bahamas to central Cuba, will extend from 28N65W to the Windward Passage on Saturday night, then stall and weaken from 24N65W to Haiti on Sunday. Strong winds and large seas are expected north of 26N on both sides of the front through Saturday night. Another cold front is expected to move east of the Florida coast on Tuesday. $$ mt/dm