000 AXNT20 KNHC 081031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...ATLC GALE WARNING... The METEO FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds, in parts of the following areas: MADEIRA; and in parts of AGADIR. The outlook, for the 24 hour time period after the initial forecast period, consists of: the threat of North or Northeast near gale or gale in: MADEIRA. Please, refer to the following website, http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.2106.05 21060465121.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N27W to 05N36W, and 05N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 20W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through Florida near Fort Myers, into the southeast Gulf of Mexico, across the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate showers are along the frontal boundary. The cold front will exit the basin later today. High pressure will build over the Gulf through Saturday. The next cold front will push off the Texas coast Sunday night, and bring strong NW winds across the western and central Gulf on Monday. Gale-force winds are possible near Veracruz Monday. The front will extend from northern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is pushing high level moisture across the Caribbean Sea. Water vapor satellite imagery show a ridge from northern Venezuela and northern Colombia to Panama and Costa Rica. A cold front passes through Florida near Fort Myers, into the southeast Gulf of Mexico, across the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate showers are along the frontal boundary. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across southern sections of Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated showers are near the trough axis. Broken to overcast clouds and scattered showers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea, moving with the low level wind flow. The cold front across the Yucatan Channel will stall and weaken across the NW Caribbean through Saturday. Fresh trade winds will prevail across the basin Saturday through Tuesday. Nightly pulses of strong winds are expected off the Colombia coast, with near gale-force winds possible Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 31N46W to 23N62W. Widely scattered showers, in broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, is within 100 nm on either side of the trough axis. Surface low pressure and cyclonic wind flow cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 25W eastward. A 998 mb low pressure center is near 33N11W. Widely scattered showers are from 30N northward and 15W eastward. A cold front moving off the SE coast of the United States extends from a 1009 mb low near 32N80W to near Jacksonville Florida. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. The cold front will move east of the Florida coast later today, extend from 31N72W across the Bahamas to central Cuba tonight, and from 28N65W to the Windward Passage Saturday night. Strong winds and large seas are expected north of 26N on both sides of the front through Saturday night. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida Tuesday night. $$ Mundell