000 AXNT20 KNHC 062123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move through the western Gulf tonight and early Thu, bringing strong winds behind it. Gales will develop late Thu morning offshore of Veracruz, Mexico and continue into the early evening. Seas up to around 8 ft are possible. Winds and seas will decrease Thu night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are in the Meteo- France forecast areas of Irving, Madeira, Agadir, Meteor and Canarias. Gales will continue into tonight for Agadir, Meteor and Canarias and into Thu for Irving and Madeira. Please read the latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near the border of Guiana and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 15W-19W, from 02N-04N between 23W-26W, and from 02N-06N between 35W-43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-07N between 26W- 32W, and from 05N-07N between 46W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features for information on a Gale Warning in effect for the waters offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. High pressure is over the southeast United States with a ridge axis reaching W-SW across the lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh return flow under the ridging, except gentle to moderate in the northeast Gulf closer to the parent high center. Seas are 3 ft or less across the northeast half of the Gulf basin, and 2-4 ft elsewhere except to 5 ft offshore of Texas where the pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front is tight. A cold front will exit the Texas coast this evening, then stretch from the central Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche on Thu, then from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. The front will exit the basin early Fri. Behind the front, strong NW winds will prevail, with a period of gales offshore Veracruz Thu. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front with moderate winds prevailing through Sat. The next cold front will push off the Texas coast Sun night and bring strong NW winds across the basin once again on Mon. Brief gale- force winds are possible near Veracruz on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extending off the coast of Cuba near 21N79W to the SE Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean near this boundary. A surface trough extending from north of Puerto Rico near 20N65W to south of the Dominican Republic near 16N71W is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast and south of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are pushing west across Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the basin along with seas mainly in the 3-5 ft range. Generally moderate trades will prevail over the basin into late week, with nightly pulses of strong winds expected off the Colombia coast. A stationary front from Cuba to the Yucatan will dissipate tonight. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu night and linger in the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds can be expected toward the end of the weekend and into early next week for the central and eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N56W to near the southeast Bahamas continuing to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W as a stationary front. Some convection has developed N of 32N and east of the front, with scattered showers elsewhere near the boundary south of 32N. Afternoon scatterometer data confirmed fresh to strong southerly winds north of 26N and ahead of the front, and north of 29N west of the front to around 70W. Seas in mainly northerly swell are 8-12 ft roughly north of 26N between 48W-76W. Elsewhere west of 60W mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail, except 3 ft or less west of the Bahamas. Farther east, another cold front stretches from the coast of Morocco near 28N13W to 22N25W. Scattered showers are possible near the front along the coast of Morocco. A high pressure area of 1016 mb is located near 21N45W with this high dominating the waters between the two cold fronts. For the forecast west of 60W, the cold front will slowly move eastward on Thu and dissipate by Thu night. The next cold front will move off the Florida coast Thu night, bringing a broad area of strong to near gale-force winds on both sides of it N of 27N through Sat. Winds are expected to diminish by Sun. By Mon, winds will shift to the southeast ahead of the next system. $$ Lewitsky