000
AXNT20 KNHC 061743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move through the
western Gulf Wed night and early Thu, bringing strong winds 
behind it. Gales will develop Thu offshore Veracruz by midday and
continue into the evening. Seas up to 8 ft are possible. Winds 
and seas will decrease Thu night. Please, read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are in the METEO 
FRANCE forecast areas of Irving, Madeira, and Agadir. Gales will 
continue into tonight for Agadir and into Thu for Irving and
Madeira. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas 
Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N12W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 
00N- 07N between 12W- 18W. Similar convection is within 80 nm of 
the ITCZ between 23W- 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on a
Gale Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu.

As of 1500 UTC, the cold front draping across central Florida 
into the eastern Gulf has dissipated. A warm front connected to 
a 1009 mb low in N Texas extends into the Gulf from Galveston, 
TX to near 28N90W. No significant convection is associated with 
this front. High pressure centered over the U.S. north of the 
Gulf is allowing for moderate NE- E flow in the eastern half of 
the basin, with moderate to fresh E-SE flow in the western half 
of the basin. 

A cold front associated with the 1009 mb low will exit the Texas 
coast this evening, then stretch from the central Gulf to the 
southern Bay of Campeche on Thu, then from the Florida Panhandle 
to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. The front will exit the 
basin early Fri. Behind the front, strong NW winds will prevail, 
with a period of gales offshore Veracruz Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extending off the coast of Cuba near 21N79W to
the SE Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W is causing isolated showers 
and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean. A surface trough 
extending from north of Puerto Rico near 21N65W to 15N73W is 
causing scattered moderate convection south of Hispaniola. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will push west toward the 
coast of Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the basin. 

Generally moderate trades will prevail over the
basin into late week, with nightly pulses of strong winds
expected off the Colombia coast. The stationary front from Cuba 
to the Yucatan will dissipate tonight. A cold front will enter 
the Yucatan Channel Thu night and linger in the NW Caribbean 
through the weekend. Fresh trade winds can be expected toward the 
end of the weekend for the central and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N62W to 27N74W. No 
convection is associated with this front, but strong NW winds 
and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail N of the front, to the N of 28N. 

Farther E, another cold front stretches from 32N60W to the SE
Bahamas, then becomes stationary into central Cuba. Strong winds 
are also behind this front north of 28N with seas ranging from 8 
to 11 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of this 
front located N of 29N and E of 58W. Elsewhere to the south of 
the boundary, a 1017 mb high pressure center near 24N45W 
dominates, allowing for mainly gentle winds. 

For the forecast west of 60W:  The eastern front will weaken as
it slides east of the area by Thu. The secondary cold front from 
32N62W will race east of the area by Thu while weakening, with 
strong winds behind it mainly staying N of 27N. Yet another cold 
front will move off the Florida coast late Thu night, bringing a 
broad area of strong to near gale force winds on both sides of it 
N of 27N through Sat.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N10W to
21N36W. See the Special Features section above for information 
on the gale conditions east of this front. Some showers and 
thunderstorms are north of 27N and east of the front.

$$
MORA