000 AXNT20 KNHC 060557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 06 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... The 39-hour forecast, that starts at 06/0000 UTC, consists of a cold front from 31N87W to 18N96W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds, and sea heights to 8 feet, in the area that is bounded by the points from 19N95W to 19N96W to 20N96W to 19N95W...including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The METEO FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds, to be developing, in parts of the following areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, and AGADIR. The outlook, for the 24 hour time period after the initial forecast period, consists of: the persistence or threat of cyclonic near gale or gale in IRVING and in MADEIRA. Please, refer to the following website, http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.2106.05 21060465121.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N30W and 05N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward from 13W eastward; from 01N to 07N between 17W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 14N between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N76W, to inland areas of Florida about 75 nm to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, into the Gulf of Mexico, to 26N87W and 27N92W. The front becomes stationary at 27N92W, and it continues to south Texas near 28N98W. Precipitation: little to no deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has weakened, and a cold front has entered the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall and dissipate on Wednesday. A new cold front will emerge off the Texas coast on Wednesday night, with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it in the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from the Florida Peninsula to the southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, where NW gale-force winds will develop briefly near Veracruz. This front will exit the basin on Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the central Bahamas, across central Cuba, to the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are within 180 nm to the south of the frontal boundary between Cuba and 25N68W, and within 60 nm on either side of the front in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: little to no deep convective precipitation is apparent, and only associated with the monsoon trough. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers span the Caribbean Sea, moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail in the eastern half of the basin tonight, with strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia. Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers across the NW Caribbean Sea. The stationary front is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Moderate trade winds will dominate the central and eastern waters through Friday, and then the wind speeds will increase to moderate to fresh. It is likely for the next front to enter the Yucatan Channel on Thursday night, and linger in the NW Caribbean Sea through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N76W, to inland areas of Florida about 75 nm to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, into the Gulf of Mexico, to 26N87W and 27N92W. The front becomes stationary at 27N92W, and it continues to south Texas near 28N98W. Precipitation: little to no deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N51W, to 29N60W, 26N70W and 24N73W. The front becomes stationary at 24N73W, and the front continues southwestward across the central Bahamas, across central Cuba, to the southern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the frontal boundary from 25N68W northeastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are within 180 nm to the south of the frontal boundary between Cuba and 25N68W, and within 60 nm on either side of the front in the Caribbean Sea. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N21W to 25N29W. The front becomes stationary from 25N29W to 21N42W and to 23N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward from 35W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere within 150 nm to the south of the frontal boundary. High pressure in the SE waters will move E of the area tonight. A cold front, stretching from the eastern waters to the SE Bahamas, has stalled into central Cuba this evening. This front will sag SE through the end of the week while weakening. A secondary cold front has moved off the Florida coast, and will reach Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Wednesday. Behind this front and N of 26N: strong NW winds will prevail through Wed. Yet another cold front will move off NE Florida Thursday night, bringing strong to near gale-force winds on both sides of it N of 28N through Saturday. $$ mt/sk