000 AXNT20 KNHC 052316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas by late Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front. Winds are forecast to briefly reach minimal gale force near the Veracruz area by Thu afternoon, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected ahead of the front, but mainly N of 26N. The front will extend from the Mississippi Delta to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning, and move across the SE Gulf on Thu night, exiting the basin by Fri morning. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N30W to near the Brazil/French Guiana border near 04N51W. An area of moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 03N-05N between 05W-11W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 02N-05N between 07W-15W. Similar convection can be found from 03N-06N between 20W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is over parts of French Guiana and Suriname. GULF OF MEXICO... A reinforcing cold front is moving quickly across the northern Gulf waters. Visible satellite imagery indicates a narrow and well defined band of clouds associated with this front, forecast to dissipate by tonight as it continues to sweep across the Gulf region. High pressure of 1021 mb, currently centered S of the front, will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters, including also the State of Florida through Wed. Light winds, combined with mainly clear skies will bring chilly conditions to South Florida tonight. Another cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico late Wed through Fri morning. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... A nearly stationary front extends from central Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, in the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W. Some shower activity is noted along the frontal boundary. Fresh northerly winds are in the wake of the front, affecting also the Yucatan Channel. The front will drift SE across the NW Caribbean, reaching from eastern Cuba to northern Belize on Wed, then gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. An area of moisture related to the western end of the front will remain over the NW Caribbean on Thu, and lift northward ahead of the next cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to locally fresh winds over the remainder of the east and central parts of the basin. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected within about 90 nm of coast of Colombia tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Patches of low-level moisture with possible showers are still noted over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As it is normal for this time of year, cold fronts continue to move from west to east across the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters. One of them, extends from 31N60W to central Cuba. Some cloudiness with embedded showers are associated with the frontal boundary. This front will be reinforcing by a secondary front tonight, reaching from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Then, it will begin to weaken Wed night into Thu as it reaches from 31N50W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The reinforcing cold front will bring an increase in winds across the waters N of 28N and W of the main front by this evening into tonight. Expect W-NW winds of 20-30 kt and building seas of 8-10 ft. On Wed morning, fresh to strong SW winds are also expected ahead of the front, but mainly N of 27N. Seas will continue to build to 11-12 ft just behind the main front. Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast region near 31N26W and continues SW to near 24N42W. An area of moderate convection is ahead of the front approaching the Canary Islands from the W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front based on satellite-derived wind data. Seas of 18-21 ft in NW swell are behind the front, with the highest seas near 31N35W. Mid to upper level moisture is advecting by strong winds from eastern Venezuela all the way to the Cabo Verde Islands into west Africa. $$ GR