000 AXNT20 KNHC 051007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... None. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and enters the eastern Atlantic along the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W then continues to 07N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 03N25W to 03N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate convection has developed S of 09N between 21W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure centered is located near 27N90W in the north central Gulf. This high is bringing mainly gentle to moderate winds and dry conditions to much of the basin. Some scattered moderate convection has developed in the extreme SW Gulf. Relatively warm and moist air over cooler waters is leading to some sea fog along the middle TX coast. Seas through the Gulf range from 2 to 4 ft. High pressure will continue to build across the Gulf, keeping gentle to moderate winds in place through Wed. A cold front will come off the Texas coast late Wed with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it over the western Gulf. The front will extend from the Florida Peninsula to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu, then move SE of the basin Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is located from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms is located along the front. There is also a cluster of moderate convection in the western Caribbean centered around 15N80W, moving toward Nicaragua and Honduras. Weak high pressure centered NE of Puerto Rico is supporting moderate to fresh winds across much of the central and eastern basin, with locally strong winds pulsing offshore Colombia this morning. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the southwest and south- central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the eastern half of the basin through Tue with strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate trades will dominate the central and eastern waters through Fri, then winds will increase to moderate to fresh. The stationary front in the far NW Caribbean will gradually dissipate through tonight. The next front may approach the Yucatan Channel Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N62W through the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection exists along this boundary. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N63W. N of 28N, fresh SW winds are occurring ahead of the front, with moderate NW winds behind the front. Seas ahead of the front are 6 to 9 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas behind it. For the forecast west of 60W, high pressure will slide east of the area ahead of the cold front, which will move east of the area by Wed. A secondary cold front will move into the area later today, bringing some strong NW winds N of 28N this afternoon into Wed night. Another cold front will move off NE Florida Thu night, bringing strong to near gale force winds on both sides of it through Sat. Farther east, a 988 mb occluded low is weakening and moving farther east of the area, near 38N36W. Winds behind its associated cold front, S of 32N, have falling below gale force, and only strong N winds are expected today, behind the cold front that is currently stretching from 32N32W to 24N45W to 26N53W. Seas north of this front in the area are reaching up to 20 ft, and swell in excess of 12 ft will continue to propagate across the waters north of 20N east of 50W through Tue. Fresh to strong west winds cover the waters north of 22N between roughly 30W and 45W. Seas 8 ft or greater primarily in NW swell dominate the waters north of 22N between 25W and 60W. Farther south into the tropics, gentle to moderate trade winds are noted, with seas 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ KONARIK