000 AXNT20 KNHC 050513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 987 mb occluded low pressure is centered north of the discussion area near 38N37W. The associated cold front passes through 32N34W, then continues SW to near 26N50W, and westward to near 25N55W. A recent ship observation near 30N40W verified there are winds to gale force on the south side of the low pressure. Further evidence is provided by a scatterometer pass from 23 UTC indicated gale conditions near 30N. The low pressure is weakening as it moves southward, and winds are expected to diminish below gale force south of 30N overnight.Very large NW swell follows the front, with combined seas reaching 25 ft by 31N42W. Swell in excess of 12 ft will continue to propagate across the waters north of 20N east of 50W through Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and enters the eastern Atlantic along the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W then continues to 07N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 03N25W to 03N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. No significant convection is observed. GULF OF MEXICO... A band of mostly mid and upper levels clouds covers the Straits of Florida and the northern approaches to the Yucatan Channel this evening, just to the north of frontal boundary that moved across the eastern Gulf yesterday and is now stalled across the Yucatan Channel and far northeastern Caribbean. 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the north central Gulf, near 28N90W, just south of mouth of the Mississippi River. The drier air associated with the high pressure is maintaining virtually cloud free conditions across the central and northern Gulf. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light to gentle breezes across the Gulf north of 22N. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are anticipated south of the ridge, to the south of 22N. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, with maybe up to 5 ft near the Yucatan Channel. No fog is reported currently anywhere in the Gulf, but patchy sea fog may be starting to set up over portions of the far northwest Gulf where moist southerly flow encounters cooler shelf waters near the coast. The high pressure will continue to build across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front providing return gentle to moderate winds through Wed. A new cold front will come off the Texas coast Wed night with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will extend from Mobile Bay to Veracruz, Mexico, by Thu morning then move SE of the basin Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... As previously mentioned, a weak frontal boundary has stalled from western Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel to northeastern Yucatan. This is supporting cloudy skies across the Yucatan Channel, with a scattered showers as well moving eastward across western Cuba. Elsewhere, regional radar is showing a few showers moving westward in the trade flow across the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weak high pressure centered north of Puerto Rico and east of the southern Bahamas is supporting an area of moderate to fresh trade winds south of Hispaniola, which show up well on a scatterometer satellite pass from 00 UTC. Fresh NE winds may be active south of the Virgin Islands as well. Fresh to strong trade winds may be active close to the Colombian coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla, with fresh trade winds elsewhere within 150 nm of the coast of northeast Colombia. Elsewhere gentle to moderate NE to E winds persist. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the southwest and south- central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the eastern half of the basin through Tue with strong winds pulsing at night off the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Moderate trades will dominate the central and eastern waters into Fri night when winds will increase again to moderate to fresh. A weak cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel tonight and will stall by tue morning. This front will gradually dissipate by mid- week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: a cold front extends from 32N63W to central Cuba. Mostly mid to upper level clouds are observed along and to the north of the frontal boundary, particularly over the northern Bahamas. A few embedded showers are likely along the front from the Straits of Florida to the northern Bahamas. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 23N63W, north of Puerto Rico and east of the southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted ahead of the front, north of 27N. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident west of the front, north of 27N. The high pressure area is supporting mostly light to gentle breezes south of 27N, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast west of 60W, the high pressure will weaken overnight and move eastward Tue, ahead of the advancing cold front. A reinforcing front will move eastward north of 27N through midweek, bringing strong west winds north of 27N Tue into Wed night. The next cold front will come off the northeast Florida coast Thu night preceded by fresh to strong to possibly near gale force S and SW winds. Behind the front, strong WNW winds may occur north of 25N. Farther east, besides the gale force winds mentioned in the Special Features section above, fresh to strong west winds cover the waters north of 25N between roughly 35W and 45W. Seas 8 ft or greater primarily in NW swell dominate the waters north of 22N between 25W and 60W. Farther south into the tropics, gentle to moderate trade winds are noted, with seas 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ Christensen